Conformal Cascade: Distribution-Free Accuracy Guarantees for Multi-Tier LLM Inference

Large language model (LLM) cascades reduce inference cost by routing easy queries to a small model and deferring hard queries to a larger one. Production cascades govern this deferral through a confidence threshold, but LLM confidence scores are miscalibrated, the threshold must be tuned per model pair and per domain, and no setting yields a formal bound on cascade accuracy. We introduce \textbf{Conformal Cascade} (CC), a multi-tier inference framework that uses conformal prediction set size as the deferral rule: accept when the calibrated set collapses to a single answer, defer otherwise. The procedure delivers a distribution-free, finite-sample accuracy guarantee. By a per-tier union bound, the prediction set at the accepting tier covers the correct answer with probability at least $1 - Kα$ for any user-specified $α$; under a selection-preservation condition (consistent with, but not strictly implied by, our marginal coverage results), the bound tightens to $1 - α$. We further characterise expected cascade cost as an explicit function of $α$ and the calibration-set acceptance rate. Across 18 multiple-choice benchmarks spanning science, medicine, commonsense, and standardized exams, evaluated on two-tier cascades drawn from four open-weight model families, CC strictly improves over the strongest calibration-tuned heuristic cascade on the majority of family--benchmark pairs, with the largest gains on reasoning-heavy benchmarks where majority vote is unreliable; on easier benchmarks the cascade commits the vast majority of queries to the small model at no accuracy cost. Extension to open-ended generation requires an answer-clustering step that we leave for future work. The method requires no model training and only black-box API access.

How AI Agents Follow the Herd of AI? Network Effects, History, and Machine Optimism

Understanding decision-making in multi-AI-agent frameworks is crucial for analyzing strategic interactions in network-effect-driven contexts. This study investigates how AI agents navigate network-effect games, where individual payoffs depend on peer participatio--a context underexplored in multi-agent systems despite its real-world prevalence. We introduce a novel workflow design using large language model (LLM)-based agents in repeated decision-making scenarios, systematically manipulating price trajectories (fixed, ascending, descending, random) and network-effect strength. Our key findings include: First, without historical data, agents fail to infer equilibrium. Second, ordered historical sequences (e.g., escalating prices) enable partial convergence under weak network effects but strong effects trigger persistent "AI optimism"--agents overestimate participation despite contradictory evidence. Third, randomized history disrupts convergence entirely, demonstrating that temporal coherence in data shapes LLMs' reasoning, unlike humans. These results highlight a paradigm shift: in AI-mediated systems, equilibrium outcomes depend not just on incentives, but on how history is curated, which is impossible for human.

MS-ConTab: Multi-Scale Contrastive Learning of Mutation Signatures for Pan Cancer Representation and Stratification

Motivation. Understanding the pan-cancer mutational landscape offers critical insights into the molecular mechanisms underlying tumorigenesis. While patient-level machine learning techniques have been widely employed to identify tumor subtypes, cohort-level clustering, where entire cancer types are grouped based on shared molecular features, has largely relied on classical statistical methods. Results. In this study, we introduce a novel unsupervised contrastive learning framework to cluster 43 cancer types based on coding mutation data derived from the COSMIC database. For each cancer type, we construct two complementary mutation signatures: a gene-level profile capturing nucleotide substitution patterns across the most frequently mutated genes, and a chromosome-level profile representing normalized substitution frequencies across chromosomes. These dual views are encoded using TabNet encoders and optimized via a multi-scale contrastive learning objective (NT-Xent loss) to learn unified cancer-type embeddings. We demonstrate that the resulting latent representations yield biologically meaningful clusters of cancer types, aligning with known mutational processes and tissue origins. Our work represents the first application of contrastive learning to cohort-level cancer clustering, offering a scalable and interpretable framework for mutation-driven cancer subtyping.