Believe Your Model: Distribution-Guided Confidence Calibration

Large Reasoning Models have demonstrated remarkable performance with the advancement of test-time scaling techniques, which enhances prediction accuracy by generating multiple candidate responses and selecting the most reliable answer. While prior work has analyzed that internal model signals like confidence scores can partly indicate response correctness and exhibit a distributional correlation with accuracy, such distributional information has not been fully utilized to guide answer selection. Motivated by this, we propose DistriVoting, which incorporates distributional priors as another signal alongside confidence during voting. Specifically, our method (1) first decomposes the mixed confidence distribution into positive and negative components using Gaussian Mixture Models, (2) then applies a reject filter based on positive/negative samples from them to mitigate overlap between the two distributions. Besides, to further alleviate the overlap from the perspective of distribution itself, we propose SelfStepConf, which uses step-level confidence to dynamically adjust inference process, increasing the separation between the two distributions to improve the reliability of confidences in voting. Experiments across 16 models and 5 benchmarks demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches.

Semantic Bridging Domains: Pseudo-Source as Test-Time Connector

Distribution shifts between training and testing data are a critical bottleneck limiting the practical utility of models, especially in real-world test-time scenarios. To adapt models when the source domain is unknown and the target domain is unlabeled, previous works constructed pseudo-source domains via data generation and translation, then aligned the target domain with them. However, significant discrepancies exist between the pseudo-source and the original source domain, leading to potential divergence when correcting the target directly. From this perspective, we propose a Stepwise Semantic Alignment (SSA) method, viewing the pseudo-source as a semantic bridge connecting the source and target, rather than a direct substitute for the source. Specifically, we leverage easily accessible universal semantics to rectify the semantic features of the pseudo-source, and then align the target domain using the corrected pseudo-source semantics. Additionally, we introduce a Hierarchical Feature Aggregation (HFA) module and a Confidence-Aware Complementary Learning (CACL) strategy to enhance the semantic quality of the SSA process in the absence of source and ground truth of target domains. We evaluated our approach on tasks like semantic segmentation and image classification, achieving a 5.2% performance boost on GTA2Cityscapes over the state-of-the-art.