Causal Discovery via Quantile Partial Effect

Quantile Partial Effect (QPE) is a statistic associated with conditional quantile regression, measuring the effect of covariates at different levels. Our theory demonstrates that when the QPE of cause on effect is assumed to lie in a finite linear span, cause and effect are identifiable from their observational distribution. This generalizes previous identifiability results based on Functional Causal Models (FCMs) with additive, heteroscedastic noise, etc. Meanwhile, since QPE resides entirely at the observational level, this parametric assumption does not require considering mechanisms, noise, or even the Markov assumption, but rather directly utilizes the asymmetry of shape characteristics in the observational distribution. By performing basis function tests on the estimated QPE, causal directions can be distinguished, which is empirically shown to be effective in experiments on a large number of bivariate causal discovery datasets. For multivariate causal discovery, leveraging the close connection between QPE and score functions, we find that Fisher Information is sufficient as a statistical measure to determine causal order when assumptions are made about the second moment of QPE. We validate the feasibility of using Fisher Information to identify causal order on multiple synthetic and real-world multivariate causal discovery datasets.

Less is More: Enhancing Structured Multi-Agent Reasoning via Quality-Guided Distillation

The XLLM@ACL2025 Shared Task-III formulates a low-resource structural reasoning task that challenges LLMs to generate interpretable, step-by-step rationales with minimal labeled data. We present Less is More, the third-place winning approach in the XLLM@ACL2025 Shared Task-III, which focuses on structured reasoning from only 24 labeled examples. Our approach leverages a multi-agent framework with reverse-prompt induction, retrieval-augmented reasoning synthesis via GPT-4o, and dual-stage reward-guided filtering to distill high-quality supervision across three subtasks: question parsing, CoT parsing, and step-level verification. All modules are fine-tuned from Meta-Llama-3-8B-Instruct under a unified LoRA+ setup. By combining structure validation with reward filtering across few-shot and zero-shot prompts, our pipeline consistently improves structure reasoning quality. These results underscore the value of controllable data distillation in enhancing structured inference under low-resource constraints. Our code is available at https://github.com/Jiahao-Yuan/Less-is-More.