Towards Better Statistical Understanding of Watermarking LLMs

In this paper, we study the problem of watermarking large language models (LLMs). We consider the trade-off between model distortion and detection ability and formulate it as a constrained optimization problem based on the green-red algorithm of Kirchenbauer et al. (2023a). We show that the optimal solution to the optimization problem enjoys a nice analytical property which provides a better understanding and inspires the algorithm design for the watermarking process. We develop an online dual gradient ascent watermarking algorithm in light of this optimization formulation and prove its asymptotic Pareto optimality between model distortion and detection ability. Such a result guarantees an averaged increased green list probability and henceforth detection ability explicitly (in contrast to previous results). Moreover, we provide a systematic discussion on the choice of the model distortion metrics for the watermarking problem. We justify our choice of KL divergence and present issues with the existing criteria of ``distortion-free'' and perplexity. Finally, we empirically evaluate our algorithms on extensive datasets against benchmark algorithms.

Transformer Choice Net: A Transformer Neural Network for Choice Prediction

Discrete-choice models, such as Multinomial Logit, Probit, or Mixed-Logit, are widely used in Marketing, Economics, and Operations Research: given a set of alternatives, the customer is modeled as choosing one of the alternatives to maximize a (latent) utility function. However, extending such models to situations where the customer chooses more than one item (such as in e-commerce shopping) has proven problematic. While one can construct reasonable models of the customer's behavior, estimating such models becomes very challenging because of the combinatorial explosion in the number of possible subsets of items. In this paper we develop a transformer neural network architecture, the Transformer Choice Net, that is suitable for predicting multiple choices. Transformer networks turn out to be especially suitable for this task as they take into account not only the features of the customer and the items but also the context, which in this case could be the assortment as well as the customer's past choices. On a range of benchmark datasets, our architecture shows uniformly superior out-of-sample prediction performance compared to the leading models in the literature, without requiring any custom modeling or tuning for each instance.

Learning to Make Adherence-Aware Advice

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems play an increasingly prominent role in human decision-making, challenges surface in the realm of human-AI interactions. One challenge arises from the suboptimal AI policies due to the inadequate consideration of humans disregarding AI recommendations, as well as the need for AI to provide advice selectively when it is most pertinent. This paper presents a sequential decision-making model that (i) takes into account the human's adherence level (the probability that the human follows/rejects machine advice) and (ii) incorporates a defer option so that the machine can temporarily refrain from making advice. We provide learning algorithms that learn the optimal advice policy and make advice only at critical time stamps. Compared to problem-agnostic reinforcement learning algorithms, our specialized learning algorithms not only enjoy better theoretical convergence properties but also show strong empirical performance.

Facilitating Battery Swapping Services for Freight Trucks with Spatial-Temporal Demand Prediction

Electrifying heavy-duty trucks offers a substantial opportunity to curtail carbon emissions, advancing toward a carbon-neutral future. However, the inherent challenges of limited battery energy and the sheer weight of heavy-duty trucks lead to reduced mileage and prolonged charging durations. Consequently, battery-swapping services emerge as an attractive solution for these trucks. This paper employs a two-fold approach to investigate the potential and enhance the efficacy of such services. Firstly, spatial-temporal demand prediction models are adopted to predict the traffic patterns for the upcoming hours. Subsequently, the prediction guides an optimization module for efficient battery allocation and deployment. Analyzing the heavy-duty truck data on a highway network spanning over 2,500 miles, our model and analysis underscore the value of prediction/machine learning in facilitating future decision-makings. In particular, we find that the initial phase of implementing battery-swapping services favors mobile battery-swapping stations, but as the system matures, fixed-location stations are preferred.

A Neural Network Based Choice Model for Assortment Optimization

Discrete-choice models are used in economics, marketing and revenue management to predict customer purchase probabilities, say as a function of prices and other features of the offered assortment. While they have been shown to be expressive, capturing customer heterogeneity and behaviour, they are also hard to estimate, often based on many unobservables like utilities; and moreover, they still fail to capture many salient features of customer behaviour. A natural question then, given their success in other contexts, is if neural networks can eliminate the necessity of carefully building a context-dependent customer behaviour model and hand-coding and tuning the estimation. It is unclear however how one would incorporate assortment effects into such a neural network, and also how one would optimize the assortment with such a black-box generative model of choice probabilities. In this paper we investigate first whether a single neural network architecture can predict purchase probabilities for datasets from various contexts and generated under various models and assumptions. Next, we develop an assortment optimization formulation that is solvable by off-the-shelf integer programming solvers. We compare against a variety of benchmark discrete-choice models on simulated as well as real-world datasets, developing training tricks along the way to make the neural network prediction and subsequent optimization robust and comparable in performance to the alternates.

Understanding Uncertainty Sampling

Uncertainty sampling is a prevalent active learning algorithm that queries sequentially the annotations of data samples which the current prediction model is uncertain about. However, the usage of uncertainty sampling has been largely heuristic: (i) There is no consensus on the proper definition of "uncertainty" for a specific task under a specific loss; (ii) There is no theoretical guarantee that prescribes a standard protocol to implement the algorithm, for example, how to handle the sequentially arrived annotated data under the framework of optimization algorithms such as stochastic gradient descent. In this work, we systematically examine uncertainty sampling algorithms under both stream-based and pool-based active learning. We propose a notion of equivalent loss which depends on the used uncertainty measure and the original loss function and establish that an uncertainty sampling algorithm essentially optimizes against such an equivalent loss. The perspective verifies the properness of existing uncertainty measures from two aspects: surrogate property and loss convexity. Furthermore, we propose a new notion for designing uncertainty measures called \textit{loss as uncertainty}. The idea is to use the conditional expected loss given the features as the uncertainty measure. Such an uncertainty measure has nice analytical properties and generality to cover both classification and regression problems, which enable us to provide the first generalization bound for uncertainty sampling algorithms under both stream-based and pool-based settings, in the full generality of the underlying model and problem. Lastly, we establish connections between certain variants of the uncertainty sampling algorithms with risk-sensitive objectives and distributional robustness, which can partly explain the advantage of uncertainty sampling algorithms when the sample size is small.

When No-Rejection Learning is Optimal for Regression with Rejection

Learning with rejection is a prototypical model for studying the interaction between humans and AI on prediction tasks. The model has two components, a predictor and a rejector. Upon the arrival of a sample, the rejector first decides whether to accept it; if accepted, the predictor fulfills the prediction task, and if rejected, the prediction will be deferred to humans. The learning problem requires learning a predictor and a rejector simultaneously. This changes the structure of the conventional loss function and often results in non-convexity and inconsistency issues. For the classification with rejection problem, several works develop surrogate losses for the jointly learning with provable consistency guarantees; in parallel, there has been less work for the regression counterpart. We study the regression with rejection (RwR) problem and investigate the no-rejection learning strategy which treats the RwR problem as a standard regression task to learn the predictor. We establish that the suboptimality of the no-rejection learning strategy observed in the literature can be mitigated by enlarging the function class of the predictor. Then we introduce the truncated loss to single out the learning for the predictor and we show that a consistent surrogate property can be established for the predictor individually in an easier way than for the predictor and the rejector jointly. Our findings advocate for a two-step learning procedure that first uses all the data to learn the predictor and then calibrates the prediction loss for the rejector. It is better aligned with the common intuition that more data samples will lead to a better predictor and it calls for more efforts on a better design of calibration algorithms for learning the rejector. While our discussions mainly focus on the regression problem, the theoretical results and insights generalize to the classification problem as well.

Distribution-Free Model-Agnostic Regression Calibration via Nonparametric Methods

In this paper, we consider the uncertainty quantification problem for regression models. Specifically, we consider an individual calibration objective for characterizing the quantiles of the prediction model. While such an objective is well-motivated from downstream tasks such as newsvendor cost, the existing methods have been largely heuristic and lack of statistical guarantee in terms of individual calibration. We show via simple examples that the existing methods focusing on population-level calibration guarantees such as average calibration or sharpness can lead to harmful and unexpected results. We propose simple nonparametric calibration methods that are agnostic of the underlying prediction model and enjoy both computational efficiency and statistical consistency. Our approach enables a better understanding of the possibility of individual calibration, and we establish matching upper and lower bounds for the calibration error of our proposed methods. Technically, our analysis combines the nonparametric analysis with a covering number argument for parametric analysis, which advances the existing theoretical analyses in the literature of nonparametric density estimation and quantile bandit problems. Importantly, the nonparametric perspective sheds new theoretical insights into regression calibration in terms of the curse of dimensionality and reconciles the existing results on the impossibility of individual calibration. Numerical experiments show the advantage of such a simple approach under various metrics, and also under covariates shift. We hope our work provides a simple benchmark and a starting point of theoretical ground for future research on regression calibration.

Maximum Optimality Margin: A Unified Approach for Contextual Linear Programming and Inverse Linear Programming

In this paper, we study the predict-then-optimize problem where the output of a machine learning prediction task is used as the input of some downstream optimization problem, say, the objective coefficient vector of a linear program. The problem is also known as predictive analytics or contextual linear programming. The existing approaches largely suffer from either (i) optimization intractability (a non-convex objective function)/statistical inefficiency (a suboptimal generalization bound) or (ii) requiring strong condition(s) such as no constraint or loss calibration. We develop a new approach to the problem called \textit{maximum optimality margin} which designs the machine learning loss function by the optimality condition of the downstream optimization. The max-margin formulation enjoys both computational efficiency and good theoretical properties for the learning procedure. More importantly, our new approach only needs the observations of the optimal solution in the training data rather than the objective function, which makes it a new and natural approach to the inverse linear programming problem under both contextual and context-free settings; we also analyze the proposed method under both offline and online settings, and demonstrate its performance using numerical experiments.