MINT: A Universal Zero-Shot Predictor for Transaction Data

Banks analyse sequential financial transaction data to perform many tasks, including fraud prevention, credit risk assessment and offer personalization. To improve the predictive accuracy of these tasks, Payments Foundation Models encode transaction sequence data as rich contextual embeddings, which can then be provided to task-specific models as features. However, these Foundation Models are not designed for flexible zero-shot reasoning across novel downstream prediction tasks, limiting their adaptability and utility. Existing LLM-based approaches to zero-shot prediction often fail to fully exploit the predictive signal within transaction data, while relying on costly text serialization or task-specific architectures that scale poorly. To address these limitations, we present the Multimodal Instruction Network for Transactions (MINT), a framework that connects a pretrained transaction sequence encoder to a decoder-only LLM through lightweight embedding injection, transaction-language alignment, and instruction tuning. We find that MINT achieves state-of-the-art predictive question-answering performance in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution questions, while substantially reducing input tokens, latency, and memory consumption compared to text-serialization baselines. Through comprehensive analyses of representations, alignment strategies, training data, and history length, we establish that compact transaction embeddings are a superior approach to transaction representation than text serialization for multimodal reasoning and zero-shot prediction tasks.

Log-Likelihood, Simpson's Paradox, and the Detection of Machine-Generated Text

The ability to reliably distinguish human-written text from that generated by large language models is of profound societal importance. The dominant approach to this problem exploits the likelihood hypothesis: that machine-generated text should appear more probable to a detector language model than human-written text. However, we demonstrate that the token-level signal distinguishing human and machine text is non-uniform across the hidden space of the detector model, and naively averaging likelihood-based token scores across regions with fundamentally different statistical structure, as most detectors do, causes a form of Simpson's paradox: a strong local signal is destroyed by inappropriate aggregation. To correct for this, we introduce a learned local calibration step grounded in Bayesian decision theory. Rather than aggregating raw token scores, we first learn lightweight predictors of the score distributions conditioned on position in hidden space, and aggregate calibrated log-likelihood ratios instead. This single intervention dramatically and consistently improves detection performance across all baseline detectors and all datasets we consider. For example, our calibrated variant of Fast-DetectGPT improves AUROC from $0.63$ to $0.85$ on GPT-5.4 text, and a locally-calibrated DMAP detector we introduce achieves state-of-the-art performance across the board. That said, our central contribution is not a new detector, but a precise diagnosis of a significant cause of under-performance of existing detectors and a principled, modular remedy compatible with any token-averaging pipeline. This will serve as a foundation for the community to build upon, with natural avenues including richer distributional models, improved calibration strategies, and principled ensembling with hidden-space geometry signals via the full Bayes-optimal decision rule.