Contestable Multi-Agent Debate with Arena-based Argumentative Computation for Multimedia Verification

Multimedia verification requires not only accurate conclusions but also transparent and contestable reasoning. We propose a contestable multi-agent framework that integrates multimodal large language models, external verification tools, and arena-based quantitative bipolar argumentation (A-QBAF) as a submission to the ICMR 2026 Grand Challenge on Multimedia Verification. Our method decomposes each case into claim-centered sections, retrieves targeted evidence, and converts evidence into structured support and attack arguments with provenance and strength scores. These arguments are resolved through small local argument graphs with selective clash resolution and uncertainty-aware escalation. The resulting system generates section-wise verification reports that are transparent, editable, and computationally practical for real-world multimedia verification. Our implementation is public at: https://github.com/Analytics-Everywhere-Lab/MV2026_the_liems.

ChatGPT Can Predict the Future when it Tells Stories Set in the Future About the Past

This study investigates whether OpenAI's ChatGPT-3.5 and ChatGPT-4 can accurately forecast future events using two distinct prompting strategies. To evaluate the accuracy of the predictions, we take advantage of the fact that the training data at the time of experiment stopped at September 2021, and ask about events that happened in 2022 using ChatGPT-3.5 and ChatGPT-4. We employed two prompting strategies: direct prediction and what we call future narratives which ask ChatGPT to tell fictional stories set in the future with characters that share events that have happened to them, but after ChatGPT's training data had been collected. Concentrating on events in 2022, we prompted ChatGPT to engage in storytelling, particularly within economic contexts. After analyzing 100 prompts, we discovered that future narrative prompts significantly enhanced ChatGPT-4's forecasting accuracy. This was especially evident in its predictions of major Academy Award winners as well as economic trends, the latter inferred from scenarios where the model impersonated public figures like the Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell. These findings indicate that narrative prompts leverage the models' capacity for hallucinatory narrative construction, facilitating more effective data synthesis and extrapolation than straightforward predictions. Our research reveals new aspects of LLMs' predictive capabilities and suggests potential future applications in analytical contexts.