Decision-oriented benchmarking to transform AI weather forecast access: Application to the Indian monsoon

Artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) models now often outperform traditional physics-based models on common metrics while requiring orders-of-magnitude less computing resources and time. Open-access AIWP models thus hold promise as transformational tools for helping low- and middle-income populations make decisions in the face of high-impact weather shocks. Yet, current approaches to evaluating AIWP models focus mainly on aggregated meteorological metrics without considering local stakeholders' needs in decision-oriented, operational frameworks. Here, we introduce such a framework that connects meteorology, AI, and social sciences. As an example, we apply it to the 150-year-old problem of Indian monsoon forecasting, focusing on benefits to rain-fed agriculture, which is highly susceptible to climate change. AIWP models skillfully predict an agriculturally relevant onset index at regional scales weeks in advance when evaluated out-of-sample using deterministic and probabilistic metrics. This framework informed a government-led effort in 2025 to send 38 million Indian farmers AI-based monsoon onset forecasts, which captured an unusual weeks-long pause in monsoon progression. This decision-oriented benchmarking framework provides a key component of a blueprint for harnessing the power of AIWP models to help large vulnerable populations adapt to weather shocks in the face of climate variability and change.

Search over Self-Edit Strategies for LLM Adaptation

Many LLM-based open-ended search systems freeze the foundation model that proposes improvements to existing solutions, which may bottleneck long-run progress. Recent work has explored updating the proposal model at test time [arXiv:2511.23473], but the update strategy is still typically hand-specified. Therefore, this study investigated whether an LLM can use task feedback to decide how it should update its weights. For tractability, we focused on the simpler case where there is only one round of self-improvement, and restricted the update operator to self-supervised next token prediction (NTP), leaving the model freedom in choosing its training data and key NTP hyperparameters. Using the Self-Adapting Language Models (SEAL) [arXiv:2506.10943] framework as a testbed, we relaxed its fixed human template constraint and allowed the model to generate its own self-edit templates, thereby giving it more control over its training data and hyperparameters. Two variants were studied, differing in whether template generation was conditioned on a lightweight archive of past templates. In SEAL's Single-Passage Knowledge Incorporation setting with Qwen3-8B on SQuAD [arXiv:1606.05250], the no-archive variant performed comparably to the weaker "Implications" baseline, while the archive variant outperformed "Implications" and approached the strongest human-designed "Rewrite" baseline without surpassing it. Further analysis of collapse in the model's exploration revealed that a naive archive can confer some short-term robustness but can also accelerate homogenization, suggesting that explicit novelty pressure may be required to consistently advance beyond carefully optimized human strategies. Our code is available at https://github.com/cheongalc/search-self-edit-strategies .