Abstract:Pretraining time series foundation models across heterogeneous datasets necessitates effective handling of varying sampling frequencies. Current methods either employ dataset-specific patch sizes and separate FFNs, leading to fragmented representations, or enforce a fixed patch size that neglects inherent temporal variations. To address this, we propose SATS, featuring a scale-aware token alignment mechanism that treats patch size as an explicit notion of scale. By incorporating a contrastive-inspired alignment regularizer, SATS aligns representation spaces across scales while preserving distinct modeling capacities. Furthermore, a hybrid masking strategy combining random and contiguous masking is introduced to capture multi-scale temporal structures. Experimental results on LSTF benchmarks demonstrate that SATS achieves a 9.2% improvement in MSE and an 8.3% gain in GIFT-Eval MASE compared to competitive baselines. Notably, SATS consistently delivers SOTA performance while achieving a 65.6% increase in model efficiency over advanced baselines, highlighting its effectiveness and scalability in time series pretraining.
Abstract:Time series forecasting is crucial for applications in various domains. Conventional methods often rely on global decomposition into trend, seasonal, and residual components, which become ineffective for real-world series dominated by local, complex, and highly dynamic patterns. Moreover, the high model complexity of such approaches limits their applicability in real-time or resource-constrained environments. In this work, we propose a novel \textbf{RE}liability-aware \textbf{C}odebook-\textbf{AS}sisted \textbf{T}ime series forecasting framework (\textbf{ReCast}) that enables lightweight and robust prediction by exploiting recurring local shapes. ReCast encodes local patterns into discrete embeddings through patch-wise quantization using a learnable codebook, thereby compactly capturing stable regular structures. To compensate for residual variations not preserved by quantization, ReCast employs a dual-path architecture comprising a quantization path for efficient modeling of regular structures and a residual path for reconstructing irregular fluctuations. A central contribution of ReCast is a reliability-aware codebook update strategy, which incrementally refines the codebook via weighted corrections. These correction weights are derived by fusing multiple reliability factors from complementary perspectives by a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) scheme, ensuring adaptability to non-stationarity and robustness to distribution shifts. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ReCast outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) models in accuracy, efficiency, and adaptability to distribution shifts.