Scalable Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for Neural Network Potentials: Promise and Pitfalls

Neural network (NN) potentials promise highly accurate molecular dynamics (MD) simulations within the computational complexity of classical MD force fields. However, when applied outside their training domain, NN potential predictions can be inaccurate, increasing the need for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ). Bayesian modeling provides the mathematical framework for UQ, but classical Bayesian methods based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are computationally intractable for NN potentials. By training graph NN potentials for coarse-grained systems of liquid water and alanine dipeptide, we demonstrate here that scalable Bayesian UQ via stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) yields reliable uncertainty estimates for MD observables. We show that cold posteriors can reduce the required training data size and that for reliable UQ, multiple Markov chains are needed. Additionally, we find that SG-MCMC and the Deep Ensemble method achieve comparable results, despite shorter training and less hyperparameter tuning of the latter. We show that both methods can capture aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty reliably, but not systematic uncertainty, which needs to be minimized by adequate modeling to obtain accurate credible intervals for MD observables. Our results represent a step towards accurate UQ that is of vital importance for trustworthy NN potential-based MD simulations required for decision-making in practice.

Learning neural network potentials from experimental data via Differentiable Trajectory Reweighting

In molecular dynamics (MD), neural network (NN) potentials trained bottom-up on quantum mechanical data have seen tremendous success recently. Top-down approaches that learn NN potentials directly from experimental data have received less attention, typically facing numerical and computational challenges when backpropagating through MD simulations. We present the Differentiable Trajectory Reweighting (DiffTRe) method, which bypasses differentiation through the MD simulation for time-independent observables. Leveraging thermodynamic perturbation theory, we avoid exploding gradients and achieve around 2 orders of magnitude speed-up in gradient computation for top-down learning. We show effectiveness of DiffTRe in learning NN potentials for an atomistic model of diamond and a coarse-grained model of water based on diverse experimental observables including thermodynamic, structural and mechanical properties. Importantly, DiffTRe also generalizes bottom-up structural coarse-graining methods such as iterative Boltzmann inversion to arbitrary potentials. The presented method constitutes an important milestone towards enriching NN potentials with experimental data, particularly when accurate bottom-up data is unavailable.