Uncertainty Aware Functional Behavior Prediction and Material Fatigue Assessment for Circular Factory

Returned products in circular factories re-enter production with heterogeneous degradation states, usage histories, and remaining capability. Reuse cannot be decided from the current inspection alone, because future function fulfillment and component integrity may evolve differently under the next service scenario. Existing PHM approaches support degradation prediction, but often target fixed operating conditions or isolated component benchmarks, while material-fatigue assessment is rarely linked to system-level functional prognosis. This paper addresses this gap for an angle grinder by combining uncertainty-aware functional prediction with component-level fatigue assessment in an instance-specific reliability workflow. The proposed framework combines the current tool state with recent force--torque usage windows. A convolutional encoder extracts loading patterns from spindle forces and shaft torque, and an LSTM backbone predicts nine functional variables as Gaussian mean and variance estimates. In parallel, the same loading history is translated into output-shaft fatigue information through finite-element-supported stress reconstruction, S--N/Miner damage evaluation with Haibach extension, and Paris-law crack-growth analysis. A streaming replay algorithm consolidates both branches into functional, material, and system reliability trajectories. Held-out tests show mean \(2\%\)-tolerance accuracy of 0.9652 across nine outputs. Thermal variables are predicted near-perfectly, while drive motor current and load speed remain the most demanding dynamic outputs, with \(R^2\) values of 0.9750 and 0.9924. Torque history is especially important for these variables, and the conventional LSTM outperforms GRU and xLSTM in the short-history setting. Reliability calibration is most informative for drive motor current, where predicted and observed exceedance probabilities ...

Semi-Supervised Learning guided by the Generalized Bayes Rule under Soft Revision

We provide a theoretical and computational investigation of the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision, which was recently proposed as a robust criterion for pseudo-label selection (PLS) in semi-supervised learning. Opposed to traditional methods for PLS we use credal sets of priors ("generalized Bayes") to represent the epistemic modeling uncertainty. These latter are then updated by the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision. We eventually select pseudo-labeled data that are most likely in light of the least favorable distribution from the so updated credal set. We formalize the task of finding optimal pseudo-labeled data w.r.t. the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision as an optimization problem. A concrete implementation for the class of logistic models then allows us to compare the predictive power of the method with competing approaches. It is observed that the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision can achieve very promising results, especially when the proportion of labeled data is low.