Global Prediction of COVID-19 Variant Emergence Using Dynamics-Informed Graph Neural Networks

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a major driver of new surges has been the emergence of new variants. When a new variant emerges in one or more countries, other nations monitor its spread in preparation for its potential arrival. The impact of the variant and the timing of epidemic peaks in a country highly depend on when the variant arrives. The current methods for predicting the spread of new variants rely on statistical modeling, however, these methods work only when the new variant has already arrived in the region of interest and has a significant prevalence. The question arises: Can we predict when (and if) a variant that exists elsewhere will arrive in a given country and reach a certain prevalence? We propose a variant-dynamics-informed Graph Neural Network (GNN) approach. First, We derive the dynamics of variant prevalence across pairs of regions (countries) that applies to a large class of epidemic models. The dynamics suggest that ratios of variant proportions lead to simpler patterns. Therefore, we use ratios of variant proportions along with some parameters estimated from the dynamics as features in a GNN. We develop a benchmarking tool to evaluate variant emergence prediction over 87 countries and 36 variants. We leverage this tool to compare our GNN-based approach against our dynamics-only model and a number of machine learning models. Results show that the proposed dynamics-informed GNN method retrospectively outperforms all the baselines, including the currently pervasive framework of Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) that incorporates the dynamics in the loss function.

FireFly A Synthetic Dataset for Ember Detection in Wildfire

This paper presents "FireFly", a synthetic dataset for ember detection created using Unreal Engine 4 (UE4), designed to overcome the current lack of ember-specific training resources. To create the dataset, we present a tool that allows the automated generation of the synthetic labeled dataset with adjustable parameters, enabling data diversity from various environmental conditions, making the dataset both diverse and customizable based on user requirements. We generated a total of 19,273 frames that have been used to evaluate FireFly on four popular object detection models. Further to minimize human intervention, we leveraged a trained model to create a semi-automatic labeling process for real-life ember frames. Moreover, we demonstrated an up to 8.57% improvement in mean Average Precision (mAP) in real-world wildfire scenarios compared to models trained exclusively on a small real dataset.