Distilling Event Sequence Knowledge From Large Language Models

Event sequence models have been found to be highly effective in the analysis and prediction of events. Building such models requires availability of abundant high-quality event sequence data. In certain applications, however, clean structured event sequences are not available, and automated sequence extraction results in data that is too noisy and incomplete. In this work, we explore the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate event sequences that can effectively be used for probabilistic event model construction. This can be viewed as a mechanism of distilling event sequence knowledge from LLMs. Our approach relies on a Knowledge Graph (KG) of event concepts with partial causal relations to guide the generative language model for causal event sequence generation. We show that our approach can generate high-quality event sequences, filling a knowledge gap in the input KG. Furthermore, we explore how the generated sequences can be leveraged to discover useful and more complex structured knowledge from pattern mining and probabilistic event models. We release our sequence generation code and evaluation framework, as well as corpus of event sequence data.

Revisiting Relation Extraction in the era of Large Language Models

Relation extraction (RE) is the core NLP task of inferring semantic relationships between entities from text. Standard supervised RE techniques entail training modules to tag tokens comprising entity spans and then predict the relationship between them. Recent work has instead treated the problem as a \emph{sequence-to-sequence} task, linearizing relations between entities as target strings to be generated conditioned on the input. Here we push the limits of this approach, using larger language models (GPT-3 and Flan-T5 large) than considered in prior work and evaluating their performance on standard RE tasks under varying levels of supervision. We address issues inherent to evaluating generative approaches to RE by doing human evaluations, in lieu of relying on exact matching. Under this refined evaluation, we find that: (1) Few-shot prompting with GPT-3 achieves near SOTA performance, i.e., roughly equivalent to existing fully supervised models; (2) Flan-T5 is not as capable in the few-shot setting, but supervising and fine-tuning it with Chain-of-Thought (CoT) style explanations (generated via GPT-3) yields SOTA results. We release this model as a new baseline for RE tasks.

Jointly Extracting Interventions, Outcomes, and Findings from RCT Reports with LLMs

Results from Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) establish the comparative effectiveness of interventions, and are in turn critical inputs for evidence-based care. However, results from RCTs are presented in (often unstructured) natural language articles describing the design, execution, and outcomes of trials; clinicians must manually extract findings pertaining to interventions and outcomes of interest from such articles. This onerous manual process has motivated work on (semi-)automating extraction of structured evidence from trial reports. In this work we propose and evaluate a text-to-text model built on instruction-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) to jointly extract Interventions, Outcomes, and Comparators (ICO elements) from clinical abstracts, and infer the associated results reported. Manual (expert) and automated evaluations indicate that framing evidence extraction as a conditional generation task and fine-tuning LLMs for this purpose realizes considerable ($\sim$20 point absolute F1 score) gains over the previous SOTA. We perform ablations and error analyses to assess aspects that contribute to model performance, and to highlight potential directions for further improvements. We apply our model to a collection of published RCTs through mid-2022, and release a searchable database of structured findings (anonymously for now): bit.ly/joint-relations-extraction-mlhc

RedHOT: A Corpus of Annotated Medical Questions, Experiences, and Claims on Social Media

We present Reddit Health Online Talk (RedHOT), a corpus of 22,000 richly annotated social media posts from Reddit spanning 24 health conditions. Annotations include demarcations of spans corresponding to medical claims, personal experiences, and questions. We collect additional granular annotations on identified claims. Specifically, we mark snippets that describe patient Populations, Interventions, and Outcomes (PIO elements) within these. Using this corpus, we introduce the task of retrieving trustworthy evidence relevant to a given claim made on social media. We propose a new method to automatically derive (noisy) supervision for this task which we use to train a dense retrieval model; this outperforms baseline models. Manual evaluation of retrieval results performed by medical doctors indicate that while our system performance is promising, there is considerable room for improvement. Collected annotations (and scripts to assemble the dataset), are available at https://github.com/sominw/redhot.

Semi-Automating Knowledge Base Construction for Cancer Genetics

In this work, we consider the exponentially growing subarea of genetics in cancer. The need to synthesize and centralize this evidence for dissemination has motivated a team of physicians to manually construct and maintain a knowledge base that distills key results reported in the literature. This is a laborious process that entails reading through full-text articles to understand the study design, assess study quality, and extract the reported cancer risk estimates associated with particular hereditary cancer genes (i.e., penetrance). In this work, we propose models to automatically surface key elements from full-text cancer genetics articles, with the ultimate aim of expediting the manual workflow currently in place. We propose two challenging tasks that are critical for characterizing the findings reported cancer genetics studies: (i) Extracting snippets of text that describe \emph{ascertainment mechanisms}, which in turn inform whether the population studied may introduce bias owing to deviations from the target population; (ii) Extracting reported risk estimates (e.g., odds or hazard ratios) associated with specific germline mutations. The latter task may be viewed as a joint entity tagging and relation extraction problem. To train models for these tasks, we induce distant supervision over tokens and snippets in full-text articles using the manually constructed knowledge base. We propose and evaluate several model variants, including a transformer-based joint entity and relation extraction model to extract <germline mutation, risk-estimate>} pairs. We observe strong empirical performance, highlighting the practical potential for such models to aid KB construction in this space. We ablate components of our model, observing, e.g., that a joint model for <germline mutation, risk-estimate> fares substantially better than a pipelined approach.