Conformal Drug Property Prediction with Density Estimation under Covariate Shift

In drug discovery, it is vital to confirm the predictions of pharmaceutical properties from computational models using costly wet-lab experiments. Hence, obtaining reliable uncertainty estimates is crucial for prioritizing drug molecules for subsequent experimental validation. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a promising tool for creating such prediction sets for molecular properties with a coverage guarantee. However, the exchangeability assumption of CP is often challenged with covariate shift in drug discovery tasks: Most datasets contain limited labeled data, which may not be representative of the vast chemical space from which molecules are drawn. To address this limitation, we propose a method called CoDrug that employs an energy-based model leveraging both training data and unlabelled data, and Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) to assess the densities of a molecule set. The estimated densities are then used to weigh the molecule samples while building prediction sets and rectifying for distribution shift. In extensive experiments involving realistic distribution drifts in various small-molecule drug discovery tasks, we demonstrate the ability of CoDrug to provide valid prediction sets and its utility in addressing the distribution shift arising from de novo drug design models. On average, using CoDrug can reduce the coverage gap by over 35% when compared to conformal prediction sets not adjusted for covariate shift.

Molecular De Novo Design through Transformer-based Reinforcement Learning

In this work, we introduce a method to fine-tune a Transformer-based generative model for molecular de novo design. Leveraging the superior sequence learning capacity of Transformers over Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), our model can generate molecular structures with desired properties effectively. In contrast to the traditional RNN-based models, our proposed method exhibits superior performance in generating compounds predicted to be active against various biological targets, capturing long-term dependencies in the molecular structure sequence. The model's efficacy is demonstrated across numerous tasks, including generating analogues to a query structure and producing compounds with particular attributes, outperforming the baseline RNN-based methods. Our approach can be used for scaffold hopping, library expansion starting from a single molecule, and generating compounds with high predicted activity against biological targets.