A deep learning approach to solar-irradiance forecasting in sky-videos

Ahead-of-time forecasting of incident solar-irradiance on a panel is indicative of expected energy yield and is essential for efficient grid distribution and planning. Traditionally, these forecasts are based on meteorological physics models whose parameters are tuned by coarse-grained radiometric tiles sensed from geo-satellites. This research presents a novel application of deep neural network approach to observe and estimate short-term weather effects from videos. Specifically, we use time-lapsed videos (sky-videos) obtained from upward facing wide-lensed cameras (sky-cameras) to directly estimate and forecast solar irradiance. We introduce and present results on two large publicly available datasets obtained from weather stations in two regions of North America using relatively inexpensive optical hardware. These datasets contain over a million images that span for 1 and 12 years respectively, the largest such collection to our knowledge. Compared to satellite based approaches, the proposed deep learning approach significantly reduces the normalized mean-absolute-percentage error for both nowcasting, i.e. prediction of the solar irradiance at the instance the frame is captured, as well as forecasting, ahead-of-time irradiance prediction for a duration for upto 4 hours.

DeepSolarEye: Power Loss Prediction and Weakly Supervised Soiling Localization via Fully Convolutional Networks for Solar Panels

The impact of soiling on solar panels is an important and well-studied problem in renewable energy sector. In this paper, we present the first convolutional neural network (CNN) based approach for solar panel soiling and defect analysis. Our approach takes an RGB image of solar panel and environmental factors as inputs to predict power loss, soiling localization, and soiling type. In computer vision, localization is a complex task which typically requires manually labeled training data such as bounding boxes or segmentation masks. Our proposed approach consists of specialized four stages which completely avoids localization ground truth and only needs panel images with power loss labels for training. The region of impact area obtained from the predicted localization masks are classified into soiling types using the webly supervised learning. For improving localization capabilities of CNNs, we introduce a novel bi-directional input-aware fusion (BiDIAF) block that reinforces the input at different levels of CNN to learn input-specific feature maps. Our empirical study shows that BiDIAF improves the power loss prediction accuracy by about 3% and localization accuracy by about 4%. Our end-to-end model yields further improvement of about 24% on localization when learned in a weakly supervised manner. Our approach is generalizable and showed promising results on web crawled solar panel images. Our system has a frame rate of 22 fps (including all steps) on a NVIDIA TitanX GPU. Additionally, we collected first of it's kind dataset for solar panel image analysis consisting 45,000+ images.