SegRNN: Segment Recurrent Neural Network for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

RNN-based methods have faced challenges in the Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) domain when dealing with excessively long look-back windows and forecast horizons. Consequently, the dominance in this domain has shifted towards Transformer, MLP, and CNN approaches. The substantial number of recurrent iterations are the fundamental reasons behind the limitations of RNNs in LTSF. To address these issues, we propose two novel strategies to reduce the number of iterations in RNNs for LTSF tasks: Segment-wise Iterations and Parallel Multi-step Forecasting (PMF). RNNs that combine these strategies, namely SegRNN, significantly reduce the required recurrent iterations for LTSF, resulting in notable improvements in forecast accuracy and inference speed. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SegRNN not only outperforms SOTA Transformer-based models but also reduces runtime and memory usage by more than 78%. These achievements provide strong evidence that RNNs continue to excel in LTSF tasks and encourage further exploration of this domain with more RNN-based approaches. The source code is coming soon.

PETformer: Long-term Time Series Forecasting via Placeholder-enhanced Transformer

Recently, Transformer-based models have shown remarkable performance in long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks due to their ability to model long-term dependencies. However, the validity of Transformers for LTSF tasks remains debatable, particularly since recent work has shown that simple linear models can outperform numerous Transformer-based approaches. This suggests that there are limitations to the application of Transformer in LTSF. Therefore, this paper investigates three key issues when applying Transformer to LTSF: temporal continuity, information density, and multi-channel relationships. Accordingly, we propose three innovative solutions, including Placeholder Enhancement Technique (PET), Long Sub-sequence Division (LSD), and Multi-channel Separation and Interaction (MSI), which together form a novel model called PETformer. These three key designs introduce prior biases suitable for LTSF tasks. Extensive experiments have demonstrated that PETformer achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on eight commonly used public datasets for LTSF, outperforming all other models currently available. This demonstrates that Transformer still possesses powerful capabilities in LTSF.