A Differentiable Framework for Global Circulation Model Precipitation Bias Correction

Systematic biases in Global Circulation Model (GCM) outputs limit their direct applicability in regional planning, necessitating bias correction. Correcting precipitation is particularly challenging due to its non-Gaussian distribution, intermittent nature, and non-linear extremes. However, traditional statistical methods cannot learn from big data and easily address systematic biases in the GCMs, and while machine learning does provide this flexibility, their black-box type functionality hinders us from understanding these biases completely which also further prevents generalization across different GCMs and locations, especially for precipitation. In this study, we propose a differentiable bias adjustment framework called δCLIMBA (or dCLIMBA), that learns a spatiotemporally adaptive parametric bias adjustment procedure between historical CMIP6 model outputs and reference reanalysis datasets (Livneh). Results demonstrate that the proposed method accurately corrects both the magnitude and distribution of extreme storm events, with particularly strong performance in capturing extremes. The quantile distribution of precipitation is well reproduced across diverse U.S. cities, and spatial patterns perform comparably to the widely used LOCA2 statistical downscaling technique. In addition, the framework showed future trend preservation unlike pure quantile based methods and LOCA2; and results from bias correction over unseen regions showed that the marginal biases were attenuated. This work presents a modular, computationally efficient and extensible bias correction approach that is physically informed, scalable, and compatible with both historical and future applications. Its flexibility makes it suitable for integration into Earth system post-processing pipelines and impact workflows.

Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin (CREDIT)

Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) for numerical weather prediction (NWP) have significantly transformed atmospheric modeling. AI NWP models outperform traditional physics-based systems, such as the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), across several global metrics while requiring fewer computational resources. However, existing AI NWP models face limitations related to training datasets and timestep choices, often resulting in artifacts that reduce model performance. To address these challenges, we introduce the Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin (CREDIT) framework, developed at NSF NCAR. CREDIT provides a flexible, scalable, and user-friendly platform for training and deploying AI-based atmospheric models on high-performance computing systems. It offers an end-to-end pipeline for data preprocessing, model training, and evaluation, democratizing access to advanced AI NWP capabilities. We demonstrate CREDIT's potential through WXFormer, a novel deterministic vision transformer designed to predict atmospheric states autoregressively, addressing common AI NWP issues like compounding error growth with techniques such as spectral normalization, padding, and multi-step training. Additionally, to illustrate CREDIT's flexibility and state-of-the-art model comparisons, we train the FUXI architecture within this framework. Our findings show that both FUXI and WXFormer, trained on six-hourly ERA5 hybrid sigma-pressure levels, generally outperform IFS HRES in 10-day forecasts, offering potential improvements in efficiency and forecast accuracy. CREDIT's modular design enables researchers to explore various models, datasets, and training configurations, fostering innovation within the scientific community.