A personalized Uncertainty Quantification framework for patient survival models: estimating individual uncertainty of patients with metastatic brain tumors in the absence of ground truth

TodevelopanovelUncertaintyQuantification (UQ) framework to estimate the uncertainty of patient survival models in the absence of ground truth, we developed and evaluated our approach based on a dataset of 1383 patients treated with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for brain metastases between January 2015 and December 2020. Our motivating hypothesis is that a time-to-event prediction of a test patient on inference is more certain given a higher feature-space-similarity to patients in the training set. Therefore, the uncertainty for a particular patient-of-interest is represented by the concordance index between a patient similarity rank and a prediction similarity rank. Model uncertainty was defined as the increased percentage of the max uncertainty-constrained-AUC compared to the model AUC. We evaluated our method on multiple clinically-relevant endpoints, including time to intracranial progression (ICP), progression-free survival (PFS) after SRS, overall survival (OS), and time to ICP and/or death (ICPD), on a variety of both statistical and non-statistical models, including CoxPH, conditional survival forest (CSF), and neural multi-task linear regression (NMTLR). Our results show that all models had the lowest uncertainty on ICP (2.21%) and the highest uncertainty (17.28%) on ICPD. OS models demonstrated high variation in uncertainty performance, where NMTLR had the lowest uncertainty(1.96%)and CSF had the highest uncertainty (14.29%). In conclusion, our method can estimate the uncertainty of individual patient survival modeling results. As expected, our data empirically demonstrate that as model uncertainty measured via our technique increases, the similarity between a feature-space and its predicted outcome decreases.

A Neural Ordinary Differential Equation Model for Visualizing Deep Neural Network Behaviors in Multi-Parametric MRI based Glioma Segmentation

Purpose: To develop a neural ordinary differential equation (ODE) model for visualizing deep neural network (DNN) behavior during multi-parametric MRI (mp-MRI) based glioma segmentation as a method to enhance deep learning explainability. Methods: By hypothesizing that deep feature extraction can be modeled as a spatiotemporally continuous process, we designed a novel deep learning model, neural ODE, in which deep feature extraction was governed by an ODE without explicit expression. The dynamics of 1) MR images after interactions with DNN and 2) segmentation formation can be visualized after solving ODE. An accumulative contribution curve (ACC) was designed to quantitatively evaluate the utilization of each MRI by DNN towards the final segmentation results. The proposed neural ODE model was demonstrated using 369 glioma patients with a 4-modality mp-MRI protocol: T1, contrast-enhanced T1 (T1-Ce), T2, and FLAIR. Three neural ODE models were trained to segment enhancing tumor (ET), tumor core (TC), and whole tumor (WT). The key MR modalities with significant utilization by DNN were identified based on ACC analysis. Segmentation results by DNN using only the key MR modalities were compared to the ones using all 4 MR modalities. Results: All neural ODE models successfully illustrated image dynamics as expected. ACC analysis identified T1-Ce as the only key modality in ET and TC segmentations, while both FLAIR and T2 were key modalities in WT segmentation. Compared to the U-Net results using all 4 MR modalities, Dice coefficient of ET (0.784->0.775), TC (0.760->0.758), and WT (0.841->0.837) using the key modalities only had minimal differences without significance. Conclusion: The neural ODE model offers a new tool for optimizing the deep learning model inputs with enhanced explainability. The presented methodology can be generalized to other medical image-related deep learning applications.