Bootstrapping-based Regularisation for Reducing Individual Prediction Instability in Clinical Risk Prediction Models

Clinical prediction models are increasingly used to support patient care, yet many deep learning-based approaches remain unstable, as their predictions can vary substantially when trained on different samples from the same population. Such instability undermines reliability and limits clinical adoption. In this study, we propose a novel bootstrapping-based regularisation framework that embeds the bootstrapping process directly into the training of deep neural networks. This approach constrains prediction variability across resampled datasets, producing a single model with inherent stability properties. We evaluated models constructed using the proposed regularisation approach against conventional and ensemble models using simulated data and three clinical datasets: GUSTO-I, Framingham, and SUPPORT. Across all datasets, our model exhibited improved prediction stability, with lower mean absolute differences (e.g., 0.019 vs. 0.059 in GUSTO-I; 0.057 vs. 0.088 in Framingham) and markedly fewer significantly deviating predictions. Importantly, discriminative performance and feature importance consistency were maintained, with high SHAP correlations between models (e.g., 0.894 for GUSTO-I; 0.965 for Framingham). While ensemble models achieved greater stability, we show that this came at the expense of interpretability, as each constituent model used predictors in different ways. By regularising predictions to align with bootstrapped distributions, our approach allows prediction models to be developed that achieve greater robustness and reproducibility without sacrificing interpretability. This method provides a practical route toward more reliable and clinically trustworthy deep learning models, particularly valuable in data-limited healthcare settings.

A pipeline for enabling path-specific causal fairness in observational health data

When training machine learning (ML) models for potential deployment in a healthcare setting, it is essential to ensure that they do not replicate or exacerbate existing healthcare biases. Although many definitions of fairness exist, we focus on path-specific causal fairness, which allows us to better consider the social and medical contexts in which biases occur (e.g., direct discrimination by a clinician or model versus bias due to differential access to the healthcare system) and to characterize how these biases may appear in learned models. In this work, we map the structural fairness model to the observational healthcare setting and create a generalizable pipeline for training causally fair models. The pipeline explicitly considers specific healthcare context and disparities to define a target "fair" model. Our work fills two major gaps: first, we expand on characterizations of the "fairness-accuracy" tradeoff by detangling direct and indirect sources of bias and jointly presenting these fairness considerations alongside considerations of accuracy in the context of broadly known biases. Second, we demonstrate how a foundation model trained without fairness constraints on observational health data can be leveraged to generate causally fair downstream predictions in tasks with known social and medical disparities. This work presents a model-agnostic pipeline for training causally fair machine learning models that address both direct and indirect forms of healthcare bias.