Uncovering Extreme Event Mechanisms for Prediction and Control with Sensitivity-Balanced Projections

Extreme events -- such as earthquakes and coronal mass ejections -- are common in many chaotic dynamical systems, yet are difficult to characterize and predict due to the subtle instability mechanisms that drive them. In this work, we develop an interpretable technique that reveals the underlying mechanisms behind extreme events and uses them to build data-driven forecasts and intuitive event suppression controllers. In particular, we utilize the covariance balancing reduction using adjoint snapshots (CoBRAS) method to identify linear oblique projections that best capture the sensitivity of a quantity of interest and reconstruct the original state. Importantly, we bypass the need for cumbersome adjoint calculations, instead using backpropagation via modern automatically differentiable numerical frameworks. To accommodate spatially localized events, we also introduce a new variant of CoBRAS to obtain local sensitivity-balanced projections. We demonstrate the utility of this approach to characterize extreme events across a diverse set of challenging systems, including turbulent bursts of energy dissipation in the 2D Kolmogorov Flow, spontaneous synchronization in networks of coupled FitzHugh-Nagumo oscillators, and the localized formation of ocean rogue waves from a modified nonlinear Schrödinger equation. For each example, we show that our simple forecast models accurately predict extreme events and that the underlying mechanisms may be used to design control laws to prevent these events. Finally, we demonstrate that by learning a neural network surrogate model of the dynamics directly from data, we may extend this approach to experimental systems and systems that are not natively written in an automatically differentiable programming language.

HydroGym: A Reinforcement Learning Platform for Fluid Dynamics

Modeling and controlling fluid flows is critical for several fields of science and engineering, including transportation, energy, and medicine. Effective flow control can lead to, e.g., lift increase, drag reduction, mixing enhancement, and noise reduction. However, controlling a fluid faces several significant challenges, including high-dimensional, nonlinear, and multiscale interactions in space and time. Reinforcement learning (RL) has recently shown great success in complex domains, such as robotics and protein folding, but its application to flow control is hindered by a lack of standardized benchmark platforms and the computational demands of fluid simulations. To address these challenges, we introduce HydroGym, a solver-independent RL platform for flow control research. HydroGym integrates sophisticated flow control benchmarks, scalable runtime infrastructure, and state-of-the-art RL algorithms. Our platform includes 42 validated environments spanning from canonical laminar flows to complex three-dimensional turbulent scenarios, validated over a wide range of Reynolds numbers. We provide non-differentiable solvers for traditional RL and differentiable solvers that dramatically improve sample efficiency through gradient-enhanced optimization. Comprehensive evaluation reveals that RL agents consistently discover robust control principles across configurations, such as boundary layer manipulation, acoustic feedback disruption, and wake reorganization. Transfer learning studies demonstrate that controllers learned at one Reynolds number or geometry adapt efficiently to new conditions, requiring approximately 50% fewer training episodes. The HydroGym platform is highly extensible and scalable, providing a framework for researchers in fluid dynamics, machine learning, and control to add environments, surrogate models, and control algorithms to advance science and technology.