Beyond Skepticism: Evaluating LLMs Pedagogical Intent Reasoning with the Adaptive Pedagogical Vigilance Framework

The capacity of Large Language Models (LLMs) to reason about pedagogical intent within instructional communication remains underexplored, particularly in educational domains such as translation pedagogy. To address this, we propose the \textbf{Adaptive Pedagogical Vigilance (APV)} framework, a novel computational formalism that reframes communicative vigilance as an adaptive mechanism for optimizing learning through intent inference. APV formalizes the problem via a Bayesian Pedagogical Intent Inference Engine (PIIE), which models how instructors select content to maximize pedagogical utility and how vigilant learners should inversely reason about latent instructional configurations -- encompassing genre, stance, and incentives. We evaluate APV through a three-tier hierarchy: distinguishing instructional genre, reasoning about structured pedagogical setups, and generalizing to authentic educational discourse. Experiments on leading LLMs (e.g., GPT-4o, Claude 3.5) show that APV substantially improves model vigilance. It achieves the strongest discrimination between pedagogical and exposure-based content, correlates highly with human judgments ($r=0.958$), and maintains robust performance on naturalistic data where baseline methods degrade. This work establishes a unified framework for assessing and enhancing LLMs' understanding of pedagogical motives, advancing the development of more reliable AI-assisted learning systems.

Cold-Start Forecasting of New Product Life-Cycles via Conditional Diffusion Models

Forecasting the life-cycle trajectory of a newly launched product is important for launch planning, resource allocation, and early risk assessment. This task is especially difficult in the pre-launch and early post-launch phases, when product-specific outcome history is limited or unavailable, creating a cold-start problem. In these phases, firms must make decisions before demand patterns become reliably observable, while early signals are often sparse, noisy, and unstable We propose the Conditional Diffusion Life-cycle Forecaster (CDLF), a conditional generative framework for forecasting new-product life-cycle trajectories under cold start. CDLF combines three sources of information: static descriptors, reference trajectories from similar products, and newly arriving observations when available. Here, static descriptors refer to structured pre-launch characteristics of the product, such as category, price tier, brand or organization identity, scale, and access conditions. This structure allows the model to condition forecasts on relevant product context and to update them adaptively over time without retraining, yielding flexible multi-modal predictive distributions under extreme data scarcity. The method satisfies consistency with a horizon-uniform distributional error bound for recursive generation. Across studies on Intel microprocessor stock keeping unit (SKU) life cycles and the platform-mediated adoption of open large language model repositories, CDLF delivers more accurate point forecasts and higher-quality probabilistic forecasts than classical diffusion models, Bayesian updating approaches, and other state-of-the-art machine-learning baselines.

AlphaRank: An Artificial Intelligence Approach for Ranking and Selection Problems

We introduce AlphaRank, an artificial intelligence approach to address the fixed-budget ranking and selection (R&S) problems. We formulate the sequential sampling decision as a Markov decision process and propose a Monte Carlo simulation-based rollout policy that utilizes classic R&S procedures as base policies for efficiently learning the value function of stochastic dynamic programming. We accelerate online sample-allocation by using deep reinforcement learning to pre-train a neural network model offline based on a given prior. We also propose a parallelizable computing framework for large-scale problems, effectively combining "divide and conquer" and "recursion" for enhanced scalability and efficiency. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the performance of AlphaRank is significantly improved over the base policies, which could be attributed to AlphaRank's superior capability on the trade-off among mean, variance, and induced correlation overlooked by many existing policies.