Cold-Start Forecasting of New Product Life-Cycles via Conditional Diffusion Models

Forecasting the life-cycle trajectory of a newly launched product is important for launch planning, resource allocation, and early risk assessment. This task is especially difficult in the pre-launch and early post-launch phases, when product-specific outcome history is limited or unavailable, creating a cold-start problem. In these phases, firms must make decisions before demand patterns become reliably observable, while early signals are often sparse, noisy, and unstable We propose the Conditional Diffusion Life-cycle Forecaster (CDLF), a conditional generative framework for forecasting new-product life-cycle trajectories under cold start. CDLF combines three sources of information: static descriptors, reference trajectories from similar products, and newly arriving observations when available. Here, static descriptors refer to structured pre-launch characteristics of the product, such as category, price tier, brand or organization identity, scale, and access conditions. This structure allows the model to condition forecasts on relevant product context and to update them adaptively over time without retraining, yielding flexible multi-modal predictive distributions under extreme data scarcity. The method satisfies consistency with a horizon-uniform distributional error bound for recursive generation. Across studies on Intel microprocessor stock keeping unit (SKU) life cycles and the platform-mediated adoption of open large language model repositories, CDLF delivers more accurate point forecasts and higher-quality probabilistic forecasts than classical diffusion models, Bayesian updating approaches, and other state-of-the-art machine-learning baselines.

LLM-Inspired Pretrain-Then-Finetune for Small-Data, Large-Scale Optimization

We consider small-data, large-scale decision problems in which a firm must make many operational decisions simultaneously (e.g., across a large product portfolio) while observing only a few, potentially noisy, data points per instance. Inspired by the success of large language models (LLMs), we propose a pretrain-then-finetune approach built on a designed Transformer model to address this challenge. The model is first pretrained on large-scale, domain-informed synthetic data that encode managerial knowledge and structural features of the decision environment, and is then fine-tuned on real observations. This new pipeline offers two complementary advantages: pretraining injects domain knowledge into the learning process and enables the training of high-capacity models using abundant synthetic data, while finetuning adapts the pretrained model to the operational environment and improves alignment with the true data-generating regime. While we have leveraged the Transformer's state-of-the-art representational capacity, particularly its attention mechanism, to efficiently extract cross-task structure, our approach is not an off-the-shelf application. Instead, it relies on problem-specific architectural design and a tailored training procedure to match the decision setting. Theoretically, we develop the first comprehensive error analysis regarding Transformer learning in relevant contexts, establishing nonasymptotic guarantees that validate the method's effectiveness. Critically, our analysis reveals how pretraining and fine-tuning jointly determine performance, with the dominant contribution governed by whichever is more favorable. In particular, finetuning exhibits an economies-of-scale effect, whereby transfer learning becomes increasingly effective as the number of instances grows.

Closing the Loop: Coordinating Inventory and Recommendation via Deep Reinforcement Learning on Multiple Timescales

Effective cross-functional coordination is essential for enhancing firm-wide profitability, particularly in the face of growing organizational complexity and scale. Recent advances in artificial intelligence, especially in reinforcement learning (RL), offer promising avenues to address this fundamental challenge. This paper proposes a unified multi-agent RL framework tailored for joint optimization across distinct functional modules, exemplified via coordinating inventory replenishment and personalized product recommendation. We first develop an integrated theoretical model to capture the intricate interplay between these functions and derive analytical benchmarks that characterize optimal coordination. The analysis reveals synchronized adjustment patterns across products and over time, highlighting the importance of coordinated decision-making. Leveraging these insights, we design a novel multi-timescale multi-agent RL architecture that decomposes policy components according to departmental functions and assigns distinct learning speeds based on task complexity and responsiveness. Our model-free multi-agent design improves scalability and deployment flexibility, while multi-timescale updates enhance convergence stability and adaptability across heterogeneous decisions. We further establish the asymptotic convergence of the proposed algorithm. Extensive simulation experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly improves profitability relative to siloed decision-making frameworks, while the behaviors of the trained RL agents align closely with the managerial insights from our theoretical model. Taken together, this work provides a scalable, interpretable RL-based solution to enable effective cross-functional coordination in complex business settings.