Data-Driven Sample Average Approximation with Covariate Information

We study optimization for data-driven decision-making when we have observations of the uncertain parameters within the optimization model together with concurrent observations of covariates. Given a new covariate observation, the goal is to choose a decision that minimizes the expected cost conditioned on this observation. We investigate three data-driven frameworks that integrate a machine learning prediction model within a stochastic programming sample average approximation (SAA) for approximating the solution to this problem. Two of the SAA frameworks are new and use out-of-sample residuals of leave-one-out prediction models for scenario generation. The frameworks we investigate are flexible and accommodate parametric, nonparametric, and semiparametric regression techniques. We derive conditions on the data generation process, the prediction model, and the stochastic program under which solutions of these data-driven SAAs are consistent and asymptotically optimal, and also derive convergence rates and finite sample guarantees. Computational experiments validate our theoretical results, demonstrate the potential advantages of our data-driven formulations over existing approaches (even when the prediction model is misspecified), and illustrate the benefits of our new data-driven formulations in the limited data regime.

Heteroscedasticity-aware residuals-based contextual stochastic optimization

We explore generalizations of some integrated learning and optimization frameworks for data-driven contextual stochastic optimization that can adapt to heteroscedasticity. We identify conditions on the stochastic program, data generation process, and the prediction setup under which these generalizations possess asymptotic and finite sample guarantees for a class of stochastic programs, including two-stage stochastic mixed-integer programs with continuous recourse. We verify that our assumptions hold for popular parametric and nonparametric regression methods.

Residuals-based distributionally robust optimization with covariate information

We consider data-driven approaches that integrate a machine learning prediction model within distributionally robust optimization (DRO) given limited joint observations of uncertain parameters and covariates. Our framework is flexible in the sense that it can accommodate a variety of learning setups and DRO ambiguity sets. We investigate the asymptotic and finite sample properties of solutions obtained using Wasserstein, sample robust optimization, and phi-divergence-based ambiguity sets within our DRO formulations, and explore cross-validation approaches for sizing these ambiguity sets. Through numerical experiments, we validate our theoretical results, study the effectiveness of our approaches for sizing ambiguity sets, and illustrate the benefits of our DRO formulations in the limited data regime even when the prediction model is misspecified.

A stochastic approximation method for chance-constrained nonlinear programs

We propose a stochastic approximation method for approximating the efficient frontier of chance-constrained nonlinear programs. Our approach is based on a bi-objective viewpoint of chance-constrained programs that seeks solutions on the efficient frontier of optimal objective value versus risk of constraints violation. In order to be able to apply a projected stochastic subgradient algorithm to solve our reformulation with the probabilistic objective, we adapt existing smoothing-based approaches for chance-constrained problems to derive a convergent sequence of smooth approximations of our reformulated problem. In contrast with exterior sampling-based approaches (such as sample average approximation) that approximate the original chance-constrained program with one having finite support, our proposal converges to local solutions of a smooth approximation of the original problem, thereby avoiding poor local solutions that may be an artefact of a fixed sample. Computational results on three test problems from the literature indicate that our proposal is consistently able to determine better approximations of the efficient frontier than existing approaches in reasonable computation times. We also present a bisection approach for solving chance-constrained programs with a prespecified risk level.