Trust-Aware Predictive Emissions Monitoring for Gas Turbine Fleets with Limited Labelled Data

Machine learning-based predictive emissions monitoring systems offer a practical alternative to direct emissions measurement, but their deployment across gas turbine fleets is challenging when emissions labels are available for only a small subset of assets. In this work, a trust-aware probabilistic framework is proposed for fleet-level gas turbine NOx prediction under limited labelled supervision. The framework combines a multi-head recurrent prediction model with learned confidence estimation, ensemble-based uncertainty quantification, auxiliary feature prediction, feature-space distance analysis, and operating-range diagnostics. These signals are calibrated on labelled data to produce interpretable per-sample trust scores, providing indicators of prediction reliability on unlabelled turbines, supporting the identification of predictions that should be treated with greater caution during fleet-level deployment. Confidence-based filtering reduces MAE from 0.202 at full coverage to 0.070 for the highest-confidence 10\% of predictions, demonstrating that confidence estimates are meaningfully related to prediction error. Unlabelled and out-of-distribution samples exhibit increased uncertainty and reduced confidence, indicating that the framework responds appropriately to distributional shift. The results show that the proposed trust framework provides actionable reliability information for emissions prediction on unlabelled turbines, supporting more transparent and trustworthy deployment of PEMS across industrial fleets.

Tabular Machine Learning Methods for Predicting Gas Turbine Emissions

Predicting emissions for gas turbines is critical for monitoring harmful pollutants being released into the atmosphere. In this study, we evaluate the performance of machine learning models for predicting emissions for gas turbines. We compare an existing predictive emissions model, a first principles-based Chemical Kinetics model, against two machine learning models we developed based on SAINT and XGBoost, to demonstrate improved predictive performance of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and carbon monoxide (CO) using machine learning techniques. Our analysis utilises a Siemens Energy gas turbine test bed tabular dataset to train and validate the machine learning models. Additionally, we explore the trade-off between incorporating more features to enhance the model complexity, and the resulting presence of increased missing values in the dataset.