Counterfactual Sensitivity Is Not Repairability: Auditing Replay Probes for Video Evidence

Tool-using video agents retrieve visual evidence before answering, but the final answer is not forced to depend on what was retrieved. The natural black box test is counterfactual: destroy the semantic content of the frames the agent retrieved and check whether the answer changes, against a matched sham that re-executes the identical pipeline on those same frames. We introduce CARVE, a black-box counterfactual probe that compares answer changes under matched SHAM and DESTROY replays. Across three independent k=3 runs on a frozen VideoExplorer-style agent, DESTROY changes the answer 29.3 percentage points more often than SHAM, yielding a large and reproducible aggregate effect. Question-level scores are less stable, and increasing the replay budget from k=3 to k=10 reduces ties but weakens the original zero-threshold routing policy. At k=3, CARVE selects 538 of 1,258 LVBench questions and improves accuracy by 3.26 points, with higher fallback yield than most matched random subsets. The score shows only a weak association with annotated temporal coverage, so CARVE is best understood as a routing signal rather than a direct grounding classifier. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/KurbanIntelligenceLab/CARVE.

Consistency Has a Computable Blind Spot: A Commutation Theory of Label-Free Reliability for Vision-Language Figure Reading

Label-free reliability for vision-language models rests on invariance: perturb the input and a faithful reader's answer should not change. This has a known blind spot, a systematic misreading survives the perturbation and gets certified wrong, which we show is computable, not just real: an error is invisible to an edit exactly when the two commute, so the errors a suite cannot reach form its joint centralizer, a set that shrinks as edits are added and can be written down rather than guessed at. We act on the complementary relation, equivariance: edit a figure's data and the correct answer must change by a computable amount. Two matched edits are provably complete for affine reading errors; no suite of swap edits is complete for label permutations, and cyclic relabeling closes most of that gap. We instantiate the theory as the Equivariance-Consistency Score, a label-free, training-free detector, and release REND-EQUIV, pairing matched invariance and equivariance sets over identical data. The predicted ordering holds across three models and a hand-labeled population immune to the one circularity in how it is selected; a second invariance-family method confirms the blind spot belongs to the relation, not to any implementation; and cyclic relabeling delivers its predicted gain on a matched real sample. The same characterization explains a reported inversion of this ordering in the classifier metamorphic-testing literature: detectability is a joint property of the relation and the fault class, never of the relation alone.

Conformal Coverage Guarantees for Any Video Temporal Grounder

Event boundaries in continuous video are ambiguous: re-annotate the same query-video pair and independent annotators mark moments that overlap by less than half on a large fraction of samples. The ground truth for video temporal grounding is therefore a distribution over intervals, yet every grounder returns a single interval with no statement of reliability, so at deployment a wrong interval is indistinguishable from a right one. COVER changes the output object: a post-hoc, model-agnostic wrapper that turns any grounder, a trained localizer or a black-box video--language model, into one that emits a temporal region containing the true moment with probability at least $1-α$, by calibrating the quantile of a temporal nonconformity score on held-out labels and widening the base prediction by that amount. The guarantee is finite-sample and distribution-free under exchangeability, and requires neither retraining nor white-box access. We give two score families, a two-sided boundary-widening score for grounders that emit an interval and a super-level-set score for grounders that emit a relevance signal, and develop theory specific to grounding that bounds how large the certified region becomes, when coverage survives conditioning on event length, and how it degrades when moments from one video break exchangeability. Across three benchmarks and five grounders, realized coverage tracks the target, and calibration exposes what point metrics hide.

When Does Consensus Mean Correctness? Measuring the Agreement-Accuracy Coupling with Semantics-Preserving Re-Rendering

A model's agreement across perturbed inputs is used both as a label-free reliability signal and as a self-training target, on the premise that agreement tracks correctness. That coupling is rarely measured directly: natural-image perturbations preserve meaning only by assumption, and no exact answer key localizes errors. Scientific figures remove both obstacles, a figure is drawn from data by a program, so redrawing it yields images that are semantically equivalent by construction and share a programmatically exact answer. We build RENDEQ, a generator of such render-equivalence sets, and measure the coupling on three open-weight VLMs, checking every finding across three independent instantiations. Re-rendering beats resampling on both accuracy and reliability. Agreement beats an evidence-carrying baseline, mean token log-probability, on two of three models and ties on the third, reversing an intermediate, buggy replication traced to a rendering-pipeline failure. The dispersion behind this is concentrated in one style factor, the plotting library, more than double the next-largest factor and an order of magnitude above the noise floor. Fine-tuning on the model's own cross-render consensus inverts: accuracy falls in every one of five replication runs, the opposite sign to published results on natural images. Agreement certifies correctness only above a threshold set by how diffuse a model's errors are, and an objective that rewards agreement destroys exactly that diffuseness.

A Cost-Aware, Paired Protocol for Auditing Dynamic Tool Synthesis in Agentic Video Question Answering

Agentic Video Question Answering (VideoQA) systems invoke tools during inference, but their tool libraries are fixed, so recurring procedures are rebuilt from primitives on every question. Synthesizing composite tools could remove this overhead, but whether such expansion helps is hard to assess: final-answer accuracy, the standard metric, ignores inference effort, so it cannot reveal how a system shifts cost. We propose a cost-aware, paired protocol for auditing tool-augmented video agents. The protocol pairs two complete systems on the same input for each question and reports their net difference across accuracy and cost jointly. For each question, it sorts the paired outcome into one of six groups defined by joint correctness and by the change in visible tool calls, separating accuracy-preserving efficiency gains from harmful regressions. Significance is reported with McNemar's test and paired bootstrap confidence intervals. We instantiate the protocol on Dynamic-SAGE, an agentic VideoQA framework that synthesizes, validates, and persistently registers executable composite tools for reuse on unseen questions, and evaluate it against the SAGE baseline on SAGE-Bench. The audit reveals a multi-axis profile that a scalar accuracy comparison would miss: Dynamic-SAGE improves accuracy by 7.5 points (p < 0.001) and reduces reasoning turns and visible tool calls by roughly 28%, while shifting rather than reducing inference cost, as token usage rises 34% and cost 26%. Gains are largest on visual and open-ended questions and neutral on verbal and multimodal ones, and residual failures concentrate on hard, open-ended questions where the pipeline does the most work. By measuring accuracy and cost jointly, the protocol shows where the pipeline-level difference is reliable and where it is not. The code is available at https://github.com/KurbanIntelligenceLab/Dynamic-SAGE.

GRAPE: Graph-Augmented Prototype Explanations for Interactive Medical Image Diagnosis

Prototype-based medical image classifiers present three clinical limitations: they treat findings as independent, silently amplify unsafe physician feedback, and require full retraining whenever a new finding is needed. We present GRAPE (Graph-Augmented Prototype Explanations), a unified architecture that addresses all three challenges. First, a Graph Attention Task Head models anatomical concept co-occurrence, boosting macro-F1 by +13.8,pp over the prototype baseline on TBX11K. Second, a Concept-Mismatch Safety Check - the first such mechanism in prototype-based medical classifiers - warns when the model's dominant finding inside a doctor-drawn region conflicts with the claimed label, catching 85% of erroneous annotations versus 51% for MC-Dropout with no extra inference cost. Third, Open-Vocabulary Prototype Anchoring aligns visual prototypes to clinical text, allowing a new finding to be added from a single labeled image without modifying any other component. On NIH ChestX-ray14, one Effusion example recovers full-supervision localization accuracy; on TBX11K, prototype maps achieve 2.6x better lesion localization than end-to-end baselines. All three capabilities add only +1~ms latency at interactive batch size. The project page is https://github.com/KurbanIntelligenceLab/GRAPE.

Topical Phase Transitions in Artificial Intelligence Research: Large-Scale Evidence and an Early-Warning Signature for Emerging Topics

Do research topics in artificial intelligence grow gradually, or do they advance through abrupt, detectable jumps? Analyzing 80,814 accepted main-track papers from five premier AI conferences (ACL, CVPR, ICLR, ICML, NeurIPS) spanning 2017 to 2025, we show major AI topics advance through topical phase transitions: remaining marginal for years, then surging across venues within one to three years. Large language models became the dominant cross-venue topic by 2025, diffusion models rose with comparable abruptness, and language-model methods crossed into computer vision via vision-language models, whereas reinforcement learning compounded smoothly, distinguishing genuine phase transitions from ordinary growth. This structure is our primary contribution: a large-scale, cross-venue characterization of how AI research reorganizes. We then ask whether a transition leaves a detectable footprint before it peaks. We define an early-warning signature, four publication-dynamics criteria frozen on 2017-2021 data, and evaluate it out of sample on 2023-2025 transitions, obtaining a precision of 27% and recall of 63% against a 13.5% base rate. Applied to 2025 data, the signature flags reasoning and test-time compute, agentic AI, multimodal LLMs, retrieval-augmented generation, and world models as topics to monitor over 2026-2028. The source code is also publicly available on GitHub at https://github.com/KurbanIntelligenceLab/ai-phase-transitions.

IRIS: A Real-World Benchmark for Inverse Recovery and Identification of Physical Dynamic Systems from Monocular Video

Unsupervised physical parameter estimation from video lacks a common benchmark: existing methods evaluate on non-overlapping synthetic data, the sole real-world dataset is restricted to single-body systems, and no established protocol addresses governing-equation identification. This work introduces IRIS, a high-fidelity benchmark comprising 220 real-world videos captured at 4K resolution and 60\,fps, spanning both single- and multi-body dynamics with independently measured ground-truth parameters and uncertainty estimates. Each dynamical system is recorded under controlled laboratory conditions and paired with its governing equations, enabling principled evaluation. A standardized evaluation protocol is defined encompassing parameter accuracy, identifiability, extrapolation, robustness, and governing-equation selection. Multiple baselines are evaluated, including a multi-step physics loss formulation and four complementary equation-identification strategies (VLM temporal reasoning, describe-then-classify prompting, CNN-based classification, and path-based labelling), establishing reference performance across all IRIS scenarios and exposing systematic failure modes that motivate future research. The dataset, annotations, evaluation toolkit, and all baseline implementations are publicly released.

4D Synchronized Fields: Motion-Language Gaussian Splatting for Temporal Scene Understanding

Current 4D representations decouple geometry, motion, and semantics: reconstruction methods discard interpretable motion structure; language-grounded methods attach semantics after motion is learned, blind to how objects move; and motion-aware methods encode dynamics as opaque per-point residuals without object-level organization. We propose 4D Synchronized Fields, a 4D Gaussian representation that learns object-factored motion in-loop during reconstruction and synchronizes language to the resulting kinematics through a per-object conditioned field. Each Gaussian trajectory is decomposed into shared object motion plus an implicit residual, and a kinematic-conditioned ridge map predicts temporal semantic variation, yielding a single representation in which reconstruction, motion, and semantics are structurally coupled and enabling open-vocabulary temporal queries that retrieve both objects and moments. On HyperNeRF, 4D Synchronized Fields achieves 28.52 dB mean PSNR, the highest among all language-grounded and motion-aware baselines, within 1.5 dB of reconstruction-only methods. On targeted temporal-state retrieval, the kinematic-conditioned field attains 0.884 mean accuracy, 0.815 mean vIoU, and 0.733 mean tIoU, surpassing 4D LangSplat (0.620, 0.433, and 0.439 respectively) and LangSplat (0.415, 0.304, and 0.262). Ablation confirms that kinematic conditioning is the primary driver, accounting for +0.45 tIoU over a static-embedding-only baseline. 4D Synchronized Fields is the only method that jointly exposes interpretable motion primitives and temporally grounded language fields from a single trained representation. Code will be released.

Automated Knot Detection and Pairing for Wood Analysis in the Timber Industry

Knots in wood are critical to both aesthetics and structural integrity, making their detection and pairing essential in timber processing. However, traditional manual annotation was labor-intensive and inefficient, necessitating automation. This paper proposes a lightweight and fully automated pipeline for knot detection and pairing based on machine learning techniques. In the detection stage, high-resolution surface images of wooden boards were collected using industrial-grade cameras, and a large-scale dataset was manually annotated and preprocessed. After the transfer learning, the YOLOv8l achieves an mAP@0.5 of 0.887. In the pairing stage, detected knots were analyzed and paired based on multidimensional feature extraction. A triplet neural network was used to map the features into a latent space, enabling clustering algorithms to identify and pair corresponding knots. The triplet network with learnable weights achieved a pairing accuracy of 0.85. Further analysis revealed that he distances from the knot's start and end points to the bottom of the wooden board, and the longitudinal coordinates play crucial roles in achieving high pairing accuracy. Our experiments validate the effectiveness of the proposed solution, demonstrating the potential of AI in advancing wood science and industry.