Abstract:To ensure high quality outputs, it is important to quantify the epistemic uncertainty of diffusion models. Existing methods are often unreliable because they mix epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. We introduce a method based on Fisher information that explicitly isolates epistemic variance, producing more reliable plausibility scores for generated data. To make this approach scalable, we propose FLARE (Fisher-Laplace Randomized Estimator), which approximates the Fisher information using a uniformly random subset of model parameters. Empirically, FLARE improves uncertainty estimation in synthetic time-series generation tasks, achieving more accurate and reliable filtering than other methods. Theoretically, we bound the convergence rate of our randomized approximation and provide analytic and empirical evidence that last-layer Laplace approximations are insufficient for this task.




Abstract:We study the problem of estimating the trace of a matrix $A$ that can only be accessed through matrix-vector multiplication. We introduce a new randomized algorithm, Hutch++, which computes a $(1 \pm \epsilon)$ approximation to $tr(A)$ for any positive semidefinite (PSD) $A$ using just $O(1/\epsilon)$ matrix-vector products. This improves on the ubiquitous Hutchinson's estimator, which requires $O(1/\epsilon^2)$ matrix-vector products. Our approach is based on a simple technique for reducing the variance of Hutchinson's estimator using a low-rank approximation step, and is easy to implement and analyze. Moreover, we prove that, up to a logarithmic factor, the complexity of Hutch++ is optimal amongst all matrix-vector query algorithms, even when queries can be chosen adaptively. We show that it significantly outperforms Hutchinson's method in experiments. While our theory requires $A$ to be positive semidefinite, empirical gains extend to applications involving non-PSD matrices, such as triangle estimation in networks.
Abstract:This paper studies the statistical complexity of kernel hyperparameter tuning in the setting of active regression under adversarial noise. We consider the problem of finding the best interpolant from a class of kernels with unknown hyperparameters, assuming only that the noise is square-integrable. We provide finite-sample guarantees for the problem, characterizing how increasing the complexity of the kernel class increases the complexity of learning kernel hyperparameters. For common kernel classes (e.g. squared-exponential kernels with unknown lengthscale), our results show that hyperparameter optimization increases sample complexity by just a logarithmic factor, in comparison to the setting where optimal parameters are known in advance. Our result is based on a subsampling guarantee for linear regression under multiple design matrices, combined with an {\epsilon}-net argument for discretizing kernel parameterizations.