Evaluating Generative Vehicle Trajectory Models for Traffic Intersection Dynamics

Traffic Intersections are vital to urban road networks as they regulate the movement of people and goods. However, they are regions of conflicting trajectories and are prone to accidents. Deep Generative models of traffic dynamics at signalized intersections can greatly help traffic authorities better understand the efficiency and safety aspects. At present, models are evaluated on computational metrics that primarily look at trajectory reconstruction errors. They are not evaluated online in a `live' microsimulation scenario. Further, these metrics do not adequately consider traffic engineering-specific concerns such as red-light violations, unallowed stoppage, etc. In this work, we provide a comprehensive analytics tool to train, run, and evaluate models with metrics that give better insights into model performance from a traffic engineering point of view. We train a state-of-the-art multi-vehicle trajectory forecasting model on a large dataset collected by running a calibrated scenario of a real-world urban intersection. We then evaluate the performance of the prediction models, online in a microsimulator, under unseen traffic conditions. We show that despite using ideally-behaved trajectories as input, and achieving low trajectory reconstruction errors, the generated trajectories show behaviors that break traffic rules. We introduce new metrics to evaluate such undesired behaviors and present our results.

IntTrajSim: Trajectory Prediction for Simulating Multi-Vehicle driving at Signalized Intersections

Traffic simulators are widely used to study the operational efficiency of road infrastructure, but their rule-based approach limits their ability to mimic real-world driving behavior. Traffic intersections are critical components of the road infrastructure, both in terms of safety risk (nearly 28% of fatal crashes and 58% of nonfatal crashes happen at intersections) as well as the operational efficiency of a road corridor. This raises an important question: can we create a data-driven simulator that can mimic the macro- and micro-statistics of the driving behavior at a traffic intersection? Deep Generative Modeling-based trajectory prediction models provide a good starting point to model the complex dynamics of vehicles at an intersection. But they are not tested in a "live" micro-simulation scenario and are not evaluated on traffic engineering-related metrics. In this study, we propose traffic engineering-related metrics to evaluate generative trajectory prediction models and provide a simulation-in-the-loop pipeline to do so. We also provide a multi-headed self-attention-based trajectory prediction model that incorporates the signal information, which outperforms our previous models on the evaluation metrics.

TGDT: A Temporal Graph-based Digital Twin for Urban Traffic Corridors

Urban congestion at signalized intersections leads to significant delays, economic losses, and increased emissions. Existing deep learning models often lack spatial generalizability, rely on complex architectures, and struggle with real-time deployment. To address these limitations, we propose the Temporal Graph-based Digital Twin (TGDT), a scalable framework that integrates Temporal Convolutional Networks and Attentional Graph Neural Networks for dynamic, direction-aware traffic modeling and assessment at urban corridors. TGDT estimates key Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs) for traffic flow optimization at both the intersection level (e.g., queue length, waiting time) and the corridor level (e.g., traffic volume, travel time). Its modular architecture and sequential optimization scheme enable easy extension to any number of intersections and MOEs. The model outperforms state-of-the-art baselines by accurately producing high-dimensional, concurrent multi-output estimates. It also demonstrates high robustness and accuracy across diverse traffic conditions, including extreme scenarios, while relying on only a minimal set of traffic features. Fully parallelized, TGDT can simulate over a thousand scenarios within a matter of seconds, offering a cost-effective, interpretable, and real-time solution for traffic signal optimization.

Dynamic Graph Attention Networks for Travel Time Distribution Prediction in Urban Arterial Roads

Effective congestion management along signalized corridors is essential for improving productivity and reducing costs, with arterial travel time serving as a key performance metric. Traditional approaches, such as Coordinated Signal Timing and Adaptive Traffic Control Systems, often lack scalability and generalizability across diverse urban layouts. We propose Fusion-based Dynamic Graph Neural Networks (FDGNN), a structured framework for simultaneous modeling of travel time distributions in both directions along arterial corridors. FDGNN utilizes attentional graph convolution on dynamic, bidirectional graphs and integrates fusion techniques to capture evolving spatiotemporal traffic dynamics. The framework is trained on extensive hours of simulation data and utilizes GPU computation to ensure scalability. The results demonstrate that our framework can efficiently and accurately model travel time as a normal distribution on arterial roads leveraging a unique dynamic graph representation of corridor traffic states. This representation integrates sequential traffic signal timing plans, local driving behaviors, temporal turning movement counts, and ingress traffic volumes, even when aggregated over intervals as short as a single cycle length. The results demonstrate resilience to effective traffic variations, including cycle lengths, green time percentages, traffic density, and counterfactual routes. Results further confirm its stability under varying conditions at different intersections. This framework supports dynamic signal timing, enhances congestion management, and improves travel time reliability in real-world applications.

MTDT: A Multi-Task Deep Learning Digital Twin

Traffic congestion has significant impacts on both the economy and the environment. Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs) have long been the standard for evaluating the level of service and operational efficiency of traffic intersections. However, the scarcity of traditional high-resolution loop detector data (ATSPM) presents challenges in accurately measuring MOEs or capturing the intricate temporospatial characteristics inherent in urban intersection traffic. In response to this challenge, we have introduced the Multi-Task Deep Learning Digital Twin (MTDT) as a solution for multifaceted and precise intersection traffic flow simulation. MTDT enables accurate, fine-grained estimation of loop detector waveform time series for each lane of movement, alongside successful estimation of several MOEs for each lane group associated with a traffic phase concurrently and for all approaches of an arbitrary urban intersection. Unlike existing deep learning methodologies, MTDT distinguishes itself through its adaptability to local temporal and spatial features, such as signal timing plans, intersection topology, driving behaviors, and turning movement counts. While maintaining a straightforward design, our model emphasizes the advantages of multi-task learning in traffic modeling. By consolidating the learning process across multiple tasks, MTDT demonstrates reduced overfitting, increased efficiency, and enhanced effectiveness by sharing representations learned by different tasks. Furthermore, our approach facilitates sequential computation and lends itself to complete parallelization through GPU implementation. This not only streamlines the computational process but also enhances scalability and performance.

Graph Attention Network for Lane-Wise and Topology-Invariant Intersection Traffic Simulation

Traffic congestion has significant economic, environmental, and social ramifications. Intersection traffic flow dynamics are influenced by numerous factors. While microscopic traffic simulators are valuable tools, they are computationally intensive and challenging to calibrate. Moreover, existing machine-learning approaches struggle to provide lane-specific waveforms or adapt to intersection topology and traffic patterns. In this study, we propose two efficient and accurate "Digital Twin" models for intersections, leveraging Graph Attention Neural Networks (GAT). These attentional graph auto-encoder digital twins capture temporal, spatial, and contextual aspects of traffic within intersections, incorporating various influential factors such as high-resolution loop detector waveforms, signal state records, driving behaviors, and turning-movement counts. Trained on diverse counterfactual scenarios across multiple intersections, our models generalize well, enabling the estimation of detailed traffic waveforms for any intersection approach and exit lanes. Multi-scale error metrics demonstrate that our models perform comparably to microsimulations. The primary application of our study lies in traffic signal optimization, a pivotal area in transportation systems research. These lightweight digital twins can seamlessly integrate into corridor and network signal timing optimization frameworks. Furthermore, our study's applications extend to lane reconfiguration, driving behavior analysis, and facilitating informed decisions regarding intersection safety and efficiency enhancements. A promising avenue for future research involves extending this approach to urban freeway corridors and integrating it with measures of effectiveness metrics.