Minimax Quantile Lower Bounds for Interactive Statistical Decision Making with Privacy

Minimax risk and regret are expectation-based criteria and do not capture rare but consequential failures. To address this concern, we develop a $δ$-explicit minimax-quantile theory for interactive statistical decision making (ISDM). We first provide structural relations between minimax quantiles, lower minimax quantiles, and minimax risk. This includes a quantile-to-expectation conversion and an equivalence between strict and lower minimax quantiles outside a countable set of confidence levels. We then derive two converse tools for ISDM: a high-probability interactive Fano's method and a high-probability interactive Le Cam's method. Then, we show that mutual-information (MI) privacy can be handled in the same framework by restricting the admissible decision class. For coordinatewise Gaussian privatization, we derive a two-point template that isolates the privacy-induced variance inflation. We instantiate this template for Gaussian mean estimation, and use the same two-point strategy directly for two-armed Gaussian bandits. We then derive a minimax quantile lower bound for the $K$-armed Gaussian bandit problem, showing that the interactive Fano method captures the exploration cost over multiple possible best arms. The resulting lower bounds are explicit in the confidence level $δ$ and in the privacy budget for the private problems. They yield $\log(1/δ)/n$ scaling for squared-error Gaussian mean estimation, $\sqrt{T\log(1/δ)}$ scaling for two-armed bounded-mean Gaussian bandits, and $\sqrt{KT\log(1/δ)}$-type scaling for the $K$-armed bandits, with privacy appearing through a Gaussian variance-inflation factor for the private problems.

Instantiating Bayesian CVaR lower bounds in Interactive Decision Making Problems

Recent work established a generalized-Fano framework for lower bounding prior-predictive (Bayesian) CVaR in interactive statistical decision making. In this paper, we show how to instantiate that framework in concrete interactive problems and derive explicit Bayesian CVaR lower bounds from its abstract corollaries. Our approach compares a hard model with a reference model using squared Hellinger distance, and combines a lower bound on a reference hinge term with a bound on the distinguishability of the two models. We apply this approach to canonical examples, including Gaussian bandits, and obtain explicit bounds that make the dependence on key problem parameters transparent. These results show how the generalized-Fano Bayesian CVaR framework can be used as a practical lower-bound tool for interactive learning and risk-sensitive decision making.

Information-Theoretic Minimax Regret Bounds for Reinforcement Learning based on Duality

We study agents acting in an unknown environment where the agent's goal is to find a robust policy. We consider robust policies as policies that achieve high cumulative rewards for all possible environments. To this end, we consider agents minimizing the maximum regret over different environment parameters, leading to the study of minimax regret. This research focuses on deriving information-theoretic bounds for minimax regret in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with a finite time horizon. Building on concepts from supervised learning, such as minimum excess risk (MER) and minimax excess risk, we use recent bounds on the Bayesian regret to derive minimax regret bounds. Specifically, we establish minimax theorems and use bounds on the Bayesian regret to perform minimax regret analysis using these minimax theorems. Our contributions include defining a suitable minimax regret in the context of MDPs, finding information-theoretic bounds for it, and applying these bounds in various scenarios.