Abstract:Recent work established a generalized-Fano framework for lower bounding prior-predictive (Bayesian) CVaR in interactive statistical decision making. In this paper, we show how to instantiate that framework in concrete interactive problems and derive explicit Bayesian CVaR lower bounds from its abstract corollaries. Our approach compares a hard model with a reference model using squared Hellinger distance, and combines a lower bound on a reference hinge term with a bound on the distinguishability of the two models. We apply this approach to canonical examples, including Gaussian bandits, and obtain explicit bounds that make the dependence on key problem parameters transparent. These results show how the generalized-Fano Bayesian CVaR framework can be used as a practical lower-bound tool for interactive learning and risk-sensitive decision making.
Abstract:We study agents acting in an unknown environment where the agent's goal is to find a robust policy. We consider robust policies as policies that achieve high cumulative rewards for all possible environments. To this end, we consider agents minimizing the maximum regret over different environment parameters, leading to the study of minimax regret. This research focuses on deriving information-theoretic bounds for minimax regret in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with a finite time horizon. Building on concepts from supervised learning, such as minimum excess risk (MER) and minimax excess risk, we use recent bounds on the Bayesian regret to derive minimax regret bounds. Specifically, we establish minimax theorems and use bounds on the Bayesian regret to perform minimax regret analysis using these minimax theorems. Our contributions include defining a suitable minimax regret in the context of MDPs, finding information-theoretic bounds for it, and applying these bounds in various scenarios.