Decision-Theoretic Bidding Based on Learned Density Models in Simultaneous, Interacting Auctions

Auctions are becoming an increasingly popular method for transacting business, especially over the Internet. This article presents a general approach to building autonomous bidding agents to bid in multiple simultaneous auctions for interacting goods. A core component of our approach learns a model of the empirical price dynamics based on past data and uses the model to analytically calculate, to the greatest extent possible, optimal bids. We introduce a new and general boosting-based algorithm for conditional density estimation problems of this kind, i.e., supervised learning problems in which the goal is to estimate the entire conditional distribution of the real-valued label. This approach is fully implemented as ATTac-2001, a top-scoring agent in the second Trading Agent Competition (TAC-01). We present experiments demonstrating the effectiveness of our boosting-based price predictor relative to several reasonable alternatives.

Learning to Order Things

There are many applications in which it is desirable to order rather than classify instances. Here we consider the problem of learning how to order instances given feedback in the form of preference judgments, i.e., statements to the effect that one instance should be ranked ahead of another. We outline a two-stage approach in which one first learns by conventional means a binary preference function indicating whether it is advisable to rank one instance before another. Here we consider an on-line algorithm for learning preference functions that is based on Freund and Schapire's 'Hedge' algorithm. In the second stage, new instances are ordered so as to maximize agreement with the learned preference function. We show that the problem of finding the ordering that agrees best with a learned preference function is NP-complete. Nevertheless, we describe simple greedy algorithms that are guaranteed to find a good approximation. Finally, we show how metasearch can be formulated as an ordering problem, and present experimental results on learning a combination of 'search experts', each of which is a domain-specific query expansion strategy for a web search engine.