Abstract:Arterial pulse waveform morphology evolves with age, reflecting structural and functional changes in the cardiovascular system. Thus, vascular age is a valuable surrogate marker of cardiovascular health, and premature vascular ageing can indicate increased disease risk. Pulse wave analysis could support risk stratification in otherwise asymptomatic adults. We transformed pulse wave time-series data from photoplethysmography (PPG) and arterial tonometry into images, using the Symmetric Projection Attractor Reconstruction (SPAR) method. These SPAR images were used to train a convolutional neural network to classify healthy subjects into two closely spaced age groups (35-40 and 50-55 years). The model demonstrated consistent classification performance across internal and external test sets, achieving F1 scores above 70% for both PPG and tonometry signals. These results suggest that SPAR-derived pulse wave images contain discriminative morphological features even among healthy adults close in age. This proof-of-concept lays the groundwork for future research into the use of SPAR for early risk detection using smart wearables.
Abstract:This report is part of the Qumphy project (22HLT01 Qumphy) that is funded by the European Union and is dedicated to the development of measures to quantify the uncertainties associated with Machine Learning algorithms applied to medical problems, in particular the analysis and processing of Photoplethysmography (PPG) signals. In this report, a list of six medical problems that are related to PPG signals and serve as Benchmark Problems is given. Suitable Benchmark datasets and their usage are described also.
Abstract:Photoplethysmography (PPG) signals encode information about relative changes in blood volume that can be used to assess various aspects of cardiac health non-invasively, e.g.\ to detect atrial fibrillation (AF) or predict blood pressure (BP). Deep networks are well-equipped to handle the large quantities of data acquired from wearable measurement devices. However, they lack interpretability and are prone to overfitting, leaving considerable risk for poor performance on unseen data and misdiagnosis. Here, we describe the use of two scalable uncertainty quantification techniques: Monte Carlo Dropout and the recently proposed Improved Variational Online Newton. These techniques are used to assess the trustworthiness of models trained to perform AF classification and BP regression from raw PPG time series. We find that the choice of hyperparameters has a considerable effect on the predictive performance of the models and on the quality and composition of predicted uncertainties. E.g. the stochasticity of the model parameter sampling determines the proportion of the total uncertainty that is aleatoric, and has varying effects on predictive performance and calibration quality dependent on the chosen uncertainty quantification technique and the chosen expression of uncertainty. We find significant discrepancy in the quality of uncertainties over the predicted classes, emphasising the need for a thorough evaluation protocol that assesses local and adaptive calibration. This work suggests that the choice of hyperparameters must be carefully tuned to balance predictive performance and calibration quality, and that the optimal parameterisation may vary depending on the chosen expression of uncertainty.