Deep Learning-Based Forecasting of Boarding Patient Counts to Address ED Overcrowding

This study develops deep learning models to forecast the number of patients in the emergency department (ED) boarding phase six hours in advance, aiming to support proactive operational decision-making using only non-clinical, operational, and contextual features. Data were collected from five sources: ED tracking systems, inpatient census records, weather reports, federal holiday calendars, and local event schedules. After feature engineering, the data were aggregated at an hourly level, cleaned, and merged into a unified dataset for model training. Several time series deep learning models, including ResNetPlus, TSTPlus, TSiTPlus (from the tsai library), and N-BEATSx, were trained using Optuna and grid search for hyperparameter tuning. The average ED boarding count was 28.7, with a standard deviation of 11.2. N-BEATSx achieved the best performance, with a mean absolute error of 2.10, mean squared error of 7.08, root mean squared error of 2.66, and a coefficient of determination of 0.95. The model maintained stable accuracy even during periods of extremely high boarding counts, defined as values exceeding one, two, or three standard deviations above the mean. Results show that accurate six-hour-ahead forecasts are achievable without using patient-level clinical data. While strong performance was observed even with a basic feature set, the inclusion of additional features improved prediction stability under extreme conditions. This framework offers a practical and generalizable approach for hospital systems to anticipate boarding levels and help mitigate ED overcrowding.

An Artificial Intelligence-Based Framework for Predicting Emergency Department Overcrowding: Development and Evaluation Study

Background: Emergency department (ED) overcrowding remains a major challenge, causing delays in care and increased operational strain. Hospital management often reacts to congestion after it occurs. Machine learning predictive modeling offers a proactive approach by forecasting patient flow metrics, such as waiting count, to improve resource planning and hospital efficiency. Objective: This study develops machine learning models to predict ED waiting room occupancy at two time scales. The hourly model forecasts the waiting count six hours ahead (e.g., a 1 PM prediction for 7 PM), while the daily model estimates the average waiting count for the next 24 hours (e.g., a 5 PM prediction for the following day's average). These tools support staffing decisions and enable earlier interventions to reduce overcrowding. Methods: Data from a partner hospital's ED in the southeastern United States were used, integrating internal metrics and external features. Eleven machine learning algorithms, including traditional and deep learning models, were trained and evaluated. Feature combinations were optimized, and performance was assessed across varying patient volumes and hours. Results: TSiTPlus achieved the best hourly prediction (MAE: 4.19, MSE: 29.32). The mean hourly waiting count was 18.11, with a standard deviation of 9.77. Accuracy varied by hour, with MAEs ranging from 2.45 (11 PM) to 5.45 (8 PM). Extreme case analysis at one, two, and three standard deviations above the mean showed MAEs of 6.16, 10.16, and 15.59, respectively. For daily predictions, XCMPlus performed best (MAE: 2.00, MSE: 6.64), with a daily mean of 18.11 and standard deviation of 4.51. Conclusions: These models accurately forecast ED waiting room occupancy and support proactive resource allocation. Their implementation has the potential to improve patient flow and reduce overcrowding in emergency care settings.