Can Large Language Models Replace Economic Choice Prediction Labs?

Economic choice prediction is an essential challenging task, often constrained by the difficulties in acquiring human choice data. Indeed, experimental economics studies had focused mostly on simple choice settings. The AI community has recently contributed to that effort in two ways: considering whether LLMs can substitute for humans in the above-mentioned simple choice prediction settings, and the study through ML lens of more elaborated but still rigorous experimental economics settings, employing incomplete information, repetitive play, and natural language communication, notably language-based persuasion games. This leaves us with a major inspiration: can LLMs be used to fully simulate the economic environment and generate data for efficient human choice prediction, substituting for the elaborated economic lab studies? We pioneer the study of this subject, demonstrating its feasibility. In particular, we show that a model trained solely on LLM-generated data can effectively predict human behavior in a language-based persuasion game, and can even outperform models trained on actual human data.

The Search for Stability: Learning Dynamics of Strategic Publishers with Initial Documents

We study a game-theoretic model of information retrieval, in which strategic publishers aim to maximize their chances of being ranked first by the search engine, while maintaining the integrity of their original documents. We show that the commonly used PRP ranking scheme results in an unstable environment where games often fail to reach pure Nash equilibrium. We propose the Relative Ranking Principle (RRP) as an alternative ranking principle, and introduce two ranking functions that are instances of the RRP. We provide both theoretical and empirical evidence that these methods lead to a stable search ecosystem, by providing positive results on the learning dynamics convergence. We also define the publishers' and users' welfare, and demonstrate a possible publisher-user trade-off, which highlights the complexity of determining which ranking function should be selected by the search engine designer.