FWin transformer for dengue prediction under climate and ocean influence

Dengue fever is one of the most deadly mosquito-born tropical infectious diseases. Detailed long range forecast model is vital in controlling the spread of disease and making mitigation efforts. In this study, we examine methods used to forecast dengue cases for long range predictions. The dataset consists of local climate/weather in addition to global climate indicators of Singapore from 2000 to 2019. We utilize newly developed deep neural networks to learn the intricate relationship between the features. The baseline models in this study are in the class of recent transformers for long sequence forecasting tasks. We found that a Fourier mixed window attention (FWin) based transformer performed the best in terms of both the mean square error and the maximum absolute error on the long range dengue forecast up to 60 weeks.

Fourier-Mixed Window Attention: Accelerating Informer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting

We study a fast local-global window-based attention method to accelerate Informer for long sequence time-series forecasting. While window attention is local and a considerable computational saving, it lacks the ability to capture global token information which is compensated by a subsequent Fourier transform block. Our method, named FWin, does not rely on query sparsity hypothesis and an empirical approximation underlying the ProbSparse attention of Informer. Through experiments on univariate and multivariate datasets, we show that FWin transformers improve the overall prediction accuracies of Informer while accelerating its inference speeds by 40 to 50 %. We also show in a nonlinear regression model that a learned FWin type attention approaches or even outperforms softmax full attention based on key vectors extracted from an Informer model's full attention layer acting on time series data.