Robustness Analysis of POMDP Policies to Observation Perturbations

Policies for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are often designed using a nominal system model. In practice, this model can deviate from the true system during deployment due to factors such as calibration drift or sensor degradation, leading to unexpected performance degradation. This work studies policy robustness against deviations in the POMDP observation model. We introduce the Policy Observation Robustness Problem: to determine the maximum tolerable deviation in a POMDP's observation model that guarantees the policy's value remains above a specified threshold. We analyze two variants: the sticky variant, where deviations are dependent on state and actions, and the non-sticky variant, where they can be history-dependent. We show that the Policy Observation Robustness Problem can be formulated as a bi-level optimization problem in which the inner optimization is monotonic in the size of the observation deviation. This enables efficient solutions using root-finding algorithms in the outer optimization. For the non-sticky variant, we show that when policies are represented with finite-state controllers (FSCs) it is sufficient to consider observations which depend on nodes in the FSC rather than full histories. We present Robust Interval Search, an algorithm with soundness and convergence guarantees, for both the sticky and non-sticky variants. We show this algorithm has polynomial time complexity in the non-sticky variant and at most exponential time complexity in the sticky variant. We provide experimental results validating and demonstrating the scalability of implementations of Robust Interval Search to POMDP problems with tens of thousands of states. We also provide case studies from robotics and operations research which demonstrate the practical utility of the problem and algorithms.

Stochastic Barrier Certificates in the Presence of Dynamic Obstacles

Safety of stochastic dynamic systems in environments with dynamic obstacles is studied in this paper through the lens of stochastic barrier functions. We introduce both time-invariant and time-varying barrier certificates for discrete-time, continuous-space systems subject to uncertainty, which provide certified lower bounds on the probability of remaining within a safe set over a finite horizon. These certificates explicitly account for time-varying unsafe regions induced by obstacle dynamics. By leveraging Bellman's optimality perspective, the time-varying formulation directly captures temporal structure and yields less conservative bounds than state-of-the-art approaches. By restricting certificates to polynomial functions, we show that time-varying barrier synthesis can be formulated as a convex sum-of-squares program, enabling tractable optimization. Empirical evaluations on nonlinear systems with dynamic obstacles show that time-varying certificates consistently achieve tight guarantees, demonstrating improved accuracy and scalability over state-of-the-art methods.

Learning Markov Processes as Sum-of-Square Forms for Analytical Belief Propagation

Harnessing the predictive capability of Markov process models requires propagating probability density functions (beliefs) through the model. For many existing models however, belief propagation is analytically infeasible, requiring approximation or sampling to generate predictions. This paper proposes a functional modeling framework leveraging sparse Sum-of-Squares (SoS) forms for valid (conditional) density estimation. We study the theoretical restrictions of modeling conditional densities using the SoS form, and propose a novel functional form for addressing such limitations. The proposed architecture enables generalized simultaneous learning of basis functions and coefficients, while preserving analytical belief propagation. In addition, we propose a training method that allows for exact adherence to the normalization and non-negativity constraints. Our results show that the proposed method achieves accuracy comparable to state-of-the-art approaches while requiring significantly less memory in low-dimensional spaces, and it further scales to 12D systems when existing methods fail beyond 2D.

Sampling-based Task and Kinodynamic Motion Planning under Semantic Uncertainty

This paper tackles the problem of integrated task and kinodynamic motion planning in uncertain environments. We consider a robot with nonlinear dynamics tasked with a Linear Temporal Logic over finite traces ($\ltlf$) specification operating in a partially observable environment. Specifically, the uncertainty is in the semantic labels of the environment. We show how the problem can be modeled as a Partially Observable Stochastic Hybrid System that captures the robot dynamics, $\ltlf$ task, and uncertainty in the environment state variables. We propose an anytime algorithm that takes advantage of the structure of the hybrid system, and combines the effectiveness of decision-making techniques and sampling-based motion planning. We prove the soundness and asymptotic optimality of the algorithm. Results show the efficacy of our algorithm in uncertain environments, and that it consistently outperforms baseline methods.

Kino-PAX$^+$: Near-Optimal Massively Parallel Kinodynamic Sampling-based Motion Planner

Sampling-based motion planners (SBMPs) are widely used for robot motion planning with complex kinodynamic constraints in high-dimensional spaces, yet they struggle to achieve \emph{real-time} performance due to their serial computation design. Recent efforts to parallelize SBMPs have achieved significant speedups in finding feasible solutions; however, they provide no guarantees of optimizing an objective function. We introduce Kino-PAX$^{+}$, a massively parallel kinodynamic SBMP with asymptotic near-optimal guarantees. Kino-PAX$^{+}$ builds a sparse tree of dynamically feasible trajectories by decomposing traditionally serial operations into three massively parallel subroutines. The algorithm focuses computation on the most promising nodes within local neighborhoods for propagation and refinement, enabling rapid improvement of solution cost. We prove that, while maintaining probabilistic $δ$-robust completeness, this focus on promising nodes ensures asymptotic $δ$-robust near-optimality. Our results show that Kino-PAX$^{+}$ finds solutions up to three orders of magnitude faster than existing serial methods and achieves lower solution costs than a state-of-the-art GPU-based planner.

Scalable Formal Verification via Autoencoder Latent Space Abstraction

Finite Abstraction methods provide a powerful formal framework for proving that systems satisfy their specifications. However, these techniques face scalability challenges for high-dimensional systems, as they rely on state-space discretization which grows exponentially with dimension. Learning-based approaches to dimensionality reduction, utilizing neural networks and autoencoders, have shown great potential to alleviate this problem. However, ensuring the correctness of the resulting verification results remains an open question. In this work, we provide a formal approach to reduce the dimensionality of systems via convex autoencoders and learn the dynamics in the latent space through a kernel-based method. We then construct a finite abstraction from the learned model in the latent space and guarantee that the abstraction contains the true behaviors of the original system. We show that the verification results in the latent space can be mapped back to the original system. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on multiple systems, including a 26D system controlled by a neural network, showing significant scalability improvements without loss of rigor.

Universal Learning of Stochastic Dynamics for Exact Belief Propagation using Bernstein Normalizing Flows

Predicting the distribution of future states in a stochastic system, known as belief propagation, is fundamental to reasoning under uncertainty. However, nonlinear dynamics often make analytical belief propagation intractable, requiring approximate methods. When the system model is unknown and must be learned from data, a key question arises: can we learn a model that (i) universally approximates general nonlinear stochastic dynamics, and (ii) supports analytical belief propagation? This paper establishes the theoretical foundations for a class of models that satisfy both properties. The proposed approach combines the expressiveness of normalizing flows for density estimation with the analytical tractability of Bernstein polynomials. Empirical results show the efficacy of our learned model over state-of-the-art data-driven methods for belief propagation, especially for highly non-linear systems with non-additive, non-Gaussian noise.

Extended Version: Multi-Robot Motion Planning with Cooperative Localization

We consider the uncertain multi-robot motion planning (MRMP) problem with cooperative localization (CL-MRMP), under both motion and measurement noise, where each robot can act as a sensor for its nearby teammates. We formalize CL-MRMP as a chance-constrained motion planning problem, and propose a safety-guaranteed algorithm that explicitly accounts for robot-robot correlations. Our approach extends a sampling-based planner to solve CL-MRMP while preserving probabilistic completeness. To improve efficiency, we introduce novel biasing techniques. We evaluate our method across diverse benchmarks, demonstrating its effectiveness in generating motion plans, with significant performance gains from biasing strategies.

Falsification of Autonomous Systems in Rich Environments

Validating the behavior of autonomous Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents, which rely on automated controllers, is an objective of great importance. In recent years, Neural-Network (NN) controllers have been demonstrating great promise. Unfortunately, such learned controllers are often not certified and can cause the system to suffer from unpredictable or unsafe behavior. To mitigate this issue, a great effort has been dedicated to automated verification of systems. Specifically, works in the category of ``black-box testing'' rely on repeated system simulations to find a falsifying counterexample of a system run that violates a specification. As running high-fidelity simulations is computationally demanding, the goal of falsification approaches is to minimize the simulation effort (NN inference queries) needed to return a falsifying example. This often proves to be a great challenge, especially when the tested controller is well-trained. This work contributes a novel falsification approach for autonomous systems under formal specification operating in uncertain environments. We are especially interested in CPS operating in rich, semantically-defined, open environments, which yield high-dimensional, simulation-dependent sensor observations. Our approach introduces a novel reformulation of the falsification problem as the problem of planning a trajectory for a ``meta-system,'' which wraps and encapsulates the examined system; we call this approach: meta-planning. This formulation can be solved with standard sampling-based motion-planning techniques (like RRT) and can gradually integrate domain knowledge to improve the search. We support the suggested approach with an experimental study on falsification of an obstacle-avoiding autonomous car with a NN controller, where meta-planning demonstrates superior performance over alternative approaches.

Error Bounds for Deep Learning-based Uncertainty Propagation in SDEs

Stochastic differential equations are commonly used to describe the evolution of stochastic processes. The uncertainty of such processes is best represented by the probability density function (PDF), whose evolution is governed by the Fokker-Planck partial differential equation (FP-PDE). However, it is generally infeasible to solve the FP-PDE in closed form. In this work, we show that physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) can be trained to approximate the solution PDF using existing methods. The main contribution is the analysis of the approximation error: we develop a theory to construct an arbitrary tight error bound with PINNs. In addition, we derive a practical error bound that can be efficiently constructed with existing training methods. Finally, we explain that this error-bound theory generalizes to approximate solutions of other linear PDEs. Several numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate and validate the proposed methods.