Closing the Confidence-Faithfulness Gap in Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) tend to verbalize confidence scores that are largely detached from their actual accuracy, yet the geometric relationship governing this behavior remain poorly understood. In this work, we present a mechanistic interpretability analysis of verbalized confidence, using linear probes and contrastive activation addition (CAA) steering to show that calibration and verbalized confidence signals are encoded linearly but are orthogonal to one another -- a finding consistent across three open-weight models and four datasets. Interestingly, when models are prompted to simultaneously reason through a problem and verbalize a confidence score, the reasoning process disrupts the verbalized confidence direction, exacerbating miscalibration. We term this the "Reasoning Contamination Effect." Leveraging this insight, we introduce a two-stage adaptive steering pipeline that reads the model's internal accuracy estimate and steers verbalized output to match it, substantially improving calibration alignment across all evaluated models.

Correctness-Optimized Residual Activation Lens (CORAL): Transferrable and Calibration-Aware Inference-Time Steering

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit persistent miscalibration, especially after instruction tuning and preference alignment. Modified training objectives can improve calibration, but retraining is expensive. Inference-time steering offers a lightweight alternative, yet most existing methods optimize proxies for correctness rather than correctness itself. We introduce CORAL (Correctness-Optimized Residual Activation Lens), a regularized inference-time steering method that captures distributed correctness signals from model internal activations using weight-decay MLP probes. We evaluate CORAL across three 7B-parameter models and find that it consistently improves accuracy by 10\% and expected calibration error (ECE) by 50\% on average. We additionally demonstrate that these gains transfer without retraining to the complete published test sets of four held-out benchmarks (ARC-Challenge, HellaSwag, Math-MC, OpenBookQA), averaging 14\% accuracy improvements and 49\% ECE improvements. Our results support the hypothesis that distributed information in model internals can be extracted using regularized probes when individual neurons are insufficient. CORAL thus provides a compute-efficient, transferable, and calibration-aware approach to improve MCQA performance during inference.