FinEvo: From Isolated Backtests to Ecological Market Games for Multi-Agent Financial Strategy Evolution

Conventional financial strategy evaluation relies on isolated backtests in static environments. Such evaluations assess each policy independently, overlook correlations and interactions, and fail to explain why strategies ultimately persist or vanish in evolving markets. We shift to an ecological perspective, where trading strategies are modeled as adaptive agents that interact and learn within a shared market. Instead of proposing a new strategy, we present FinEvo, an ecological game formalism for studying the evolutionary dynamics of multi-agent financial strategies. At the individual level, heterogeneous ML-based traders-rule-based, deep learning, reinforcement learning, and large language model (LLM) agents-adapt using signals such as historical prices and external news. At the population level, strategy distributions evolve through three designed mechanisms-selection, innovation, and environmental perturbation-capturing the dynamic forces of real markets. Together, these two layers of adaptation link evolutionary game theory with modern learning dynamics, providing a principled environment for studying strategic behavior. Experiments with external shocks and real-world news streams show that FinEvo is both stable for reproducibility and expressive in revealing context-dependent outcomes. Strategies may dominate, collapse, or form coalitions depending on their competitors-patterns invisible to static backtests. By reframing strategy evaluation as an ecological game formalism, FinEvo provides a unified, mechanism-level protocol for analyzing robustness, adaptation, and emergent dynamics in multi-agent financial markets, and may offer a means to explore the potential impact of macroeconomic policies and financial regulations on price evolution and equilibrium.

FinHEAR: Human Expertise and Adaptive Risk-Aware Temporal Reasoning for Financial Decision-Making

Financial decision-making presents unique challenges for language models, demanding temporal reasoning, adaptive risk assessment, and responsiveness to dynamic events. While large language models (LLMs) show strong general reasoning capabilities, they often fail to capture behavioral patterns central to human financial decisions-such as expert reliance under information asymmetry, loss-averse sensitivity, and feedback-driven temporal adjustment. We propose FinHEAR, a multi-agent framework for Human Expertise and Adaptive Risk-aware reasoning. FinHEAR orchestrates specialized LLM-based agents to analyze historical trends, interpret current events, and retrieve expert-informed precedents within an event-centric pipeline. Grounded in behavioral economics, it incorporates expert-guided retrieval, confidence-adjusted position sizing, and outcome-based refinement to enhance interpretability and robustness. Empirical results on curated financial datasets show that FinHEAR consistently outperforms strong baselines across trend prediction and trading tasks, achieving higher accuracy and better risk-adjusted returns.

Guideline Forest: Experience-Induced Multi-Guideline Reasoning with Stepwise Aggregation

Human reasoning is flexible, adaptive, and grounded in prior experience-qualities that large language models (LLMs) still struggle to emulate. Existing methods either explore diverse reasoning paths at inference time or search for optimal workflows through expensive operations, but both fall short in leveraging multiple reusable strategies in a structured, efficient manner. We propose Guideline Forest, a framework that enhances LLMs reasoning by inducing structured reasoning strategies-called guidelines-from verified examples and executing them via step-wise aggregation. Unlike test-time search or single-path distillation, our method draws on verified reasoning experiences by inducing reusable guidelines and expanding each into diverse variants. Much like human reasoning, these variants reflect alternative thought patterns, are executed in parallel, refined via self-correction, and aggregated step by step-enabling the model to adaptively resolve uncertainty and synthesize robust solutions.We evaluate Guideline Forest on four benchmarks-GSM8K, MATH-500, MBPP, and HumanEval-spanning mathematical and programmatic reasoning. Guideline Forest consistently outperforms strong baselines, including CoT, ReAct, ToT, FoT, and AFlow. Ablation studies further highlight the effectiveness of multi-path reasoning and stepwise aggregation, underscoring the Guideline Forest's adaptability and generalization potential.