DAGnosis: Localized Identification of Data Inconsistencies using Structures

Identification and appropriate handling of inconsistencies in data at deployment time is crucial to reliably use machine learning models. While recent data-centric methods are able to identify such inconsistencies with respect to the training set, they suffer from two key limitations: (1) suboptimality in settings where features exhibit statistical independencies, due to their usage of compressive representations and (2) lack of localization to pin-point why a sample might be flagged as inconsistent, which is important to guide future data collection. We solve these two fundamental limitations using directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to encode the training set's features probability distribution and independencies as a structure. Our method, called DAGnosis, leverages these structural interactions to bring valuable and insightful data-centric conclusions. DAGnosis unlocks the localization of the causes of inconsistencies on a DAG, an aspect overlooked by previous approaches. Moreover, we show empirically that leveraging these interactions (1) leads to more accurate conclusions in detecting inconsistencies, as well as (2) provides more detailed insights into why some samples are flagged.

Informed Meta-Learning

In noisy and low-data regimes prevalent in real-world applications, an outstanding challenge of machine learning lies in effectively incorporating inductive biases that promote data efficiency and robustness. Meta-learning and informed ML stand out as two approaches for incorporating prior knowledge into the ML pipeline. While the former relies on a purely data-driven source of priors, the latter is guided by a formal representation of expert knowledge. This paper introduces a novel hybrid paradigm, informed meta-learning, seeking complementarity in cross-task knowledge sharing of humans and machines. We establish the foundational components of informed meta-learning and present a concrete instantiation of this framework--the Informed Neural Process. Through a series of illustrative and larger-scale experiments, we demonstrate the potential benefits of informed meta-learning in improving data efficiency and robustness to observational noise, task distribution shifts, and heterogeneity.

Retrieval-Augmented Thought Process as Sequential Decision Making

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated their strong ability to assist people and show "sparks of intelligence". However, several open challenges hinder their wider application: such as concerns over privacy, tendencies to produce hallucinations, and difficulties in handling long contexts. In this work, we address those challenges by introducing the Retrieval-Augmented Thought Process (RATP). Given access to external knowledge, RATP formulates the thought generation of LLMs as a multiple-step decision process. To optimize such a thought process, RATP leverages Monte-Carlo Tree Search, and learns a Q-value estimator that permits cost-efficient inference. In addressing the task of question-answering with private data, where ethical and security concerns limit LLM training methods, RATP achieves a 50% improvement over existing in-context retrieval-augmented language models.

Time Series Diffusion in the Frequency Domain

Fourier analysis has been an instrumental tool in the development of signal processing. This leads us to wonder whether this framework could similarly benefit generative modelling. In this paper, we explore this question through the scope of time series diffusion models. More specifically, we analyze whether representing time series in the frequency domain is a useful inductive bias for score-based diffusion models. By starting from the canonical SDE formulation of diffusion in the time domain, we show that a dual diffusion process occurs in the frequency domain with an important nuance: Brownian motions are replaced by what we call mirrored Brownian motions, characterized by mirror symmetries among their components. Building on this insight, we show how to adapt the denoising score matching approach to implement diffusion models in the frequency domain. This results in frequency diffusion models, which we compare to canonical time diffusion models. Our empirical evaluation on real-world datasets, covering various domains like healthcare and finance, shows that frequency diffusion models better capture the training distribution than time diffusion models. We explain this observation by showing that time series from these datasets tend to be more localized in the frequency domain than in the time domain, which makes them easier to model in the former case. All our observations point towards impactful synergies between Fourier analysis and diffusion models.

Large Language Models to Enhance Bayesian Optimization

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful approach for optimizing complex and expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions. Its importance is underscored in many applications, notably including hyperparameter tuning, but its efficacy depends on efficiently balancing exploration and exploitation. While there has been substantial progress in BO methods, striking this balance still remains a delicate process. In this light, we present \texttt{LLAMBO}, a novel approach that integrates the capabilities of large language models (LLM) within BO. At a high level, we frame the BO problem in natural language terms, enabling LLMs to iteratively propose promising solutions conditioned on historical evaluations. More specifically, we explore how combining contextual understanding, few-shot learning proficiency, and domain knowledge of LLMs can enhance various components of model-based BO. Our findings illustrate that \texttt{LLAMBO} is effective at zero-shot warmstarting, and improves surrogate modeling and candidate sampling, especially in the early stages of search when observations are sparse. Our approach is performed in context and does not require LLM finetuning. Additionally, it is modular by design, allowing individual components to be integrated into existing BO frameworks, or function cohesively as an end-to-end method. We empirically validate \texttt{LLAMBO}'s efficacy on the problem of hyperparameter tuning, highlighting strong empirical performance across a range of diverse benchmarks, proprietary, and synthetic tasks.

Risk-Sensitive Diffusion: Learning the Underlying Distribution from Noisy Samples

While achieving remarkable performances, we show that diffusion models are fragile to the presence of noisy samples, limiting their potential in the vast amount of settings where, unlike image synthesis, we are not blessed with clean data. Motivated by our finding that such fragility originates from the distribution gaps between noisy and clean samples along the diffusion process, we introduce risk-sensitive SDE, a stochastic differential equation that is parameterized by the risk (i.e., data "dirtiness") to adjust the distributions of noisy samples, reducing misguidance while benefiting from their contained information. The optimal expression for risk-sensitive SDE depends on the specific noise distribution, and we derive its parameterizations that minimize the misguidance of noisy samples for both Gaussian and general non-Gaussian perturbations. We conduct extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets (e.g., medical time series), showing that our model effectively recovers the clean data distribution from noisy samples, significantly outperforming conditional generation baselines.

Why do Random Forests Work? Understanding Tree Ensembles as Self-Regularizing Adaptive Smoothers

Despite their remarkable effectiveness and broad application, the drivers of success underlying ensembles of trees are still not fully understood. In this paper, we highlight how interpreting tree ensembles as adaptive and self-regularizing smoothers can provide new intuition and deeper insight to this topic. We use this perspective to show that, when studied as smoothers, randomized tree ensembles not only make predictions that are quantifiably more smooth than the predictions of the individual trees they consist of, but also further regulate their smoothness at test-time based on the dissimilarity between testing and training inputs. First, we use this insight to revisit, refine and reconcile two recent explanations of forest success by providing a new way of quantifying the conjectured behaviors of tree ensembles objectively by measuring the effective degree of smoothing they imply. Then, we move beyond existing explanations for the mechanisms by which tree ensembles improve upon individual trees and challenge the popular wisdom that the superior performance of forests should be understood as a consequence of variance reduction alone. We argue that the current high-level dichotomy into bias- and variance-reduction prevalent in statistics is insufficient to understand tree ensembles -- because the prevailing definition of bias does not capture differences in the expressivity of the hypothesis classes formed by trees and forests. Instead, we show that forests can improve upon trees by three distinct mechanisms that are usually implicitly entangled. In particular, we demonstrate that the smoothing effect of ensembling can reduce variance in predictions due to noise in outcome generation, reduce variability in the quality of the learned function given fixed input data and reduce potential bias in learnable functions by enriching the available hypothesis space.

Dense Reward for Free in Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has been credited as the key advance that has allowed Large Language Models (LLMs) to effectively follow instructions and produce useful assistance. Classically, this involves generating completions from the LLM in response to a query before using a separate reward model to assign a score to the full completion. As an auto-regressive process, the LLM has to take many "actions" (selecting individual tokens) and only receives a single, sparse reward at the end of an episode, a setup that is known to be difficult to optimise in traditional reinforcement learning. In this work we leverage the fact that the reward model contains more information than just its scalar output, in particular, it calculates an attention map over tokens as part of the transformer architecture. We use these attention weights to redistribute the reward along the whole completion, effectively densifying the signal and highlighting the most important tokens, all without incurring extra computational cost or requiring any additional modelling. We demonstrate that, theoretically, this approach is equivalent to potential-based reward shaping, ensuring that the optimal policy remains unchanged. Empirically, we show that it stabilises training, accelerates the rate of learning, and, in practical cases, may lead to better local optima.

Adaptive Experiment Design with Synthetic Controls

Clinical trials are typically run in order to understand the effects of a new treatment on a given population of patients. However, patients in large populations rarely respond the same way to the same treatment. This heterogeneity in patient responses necessitates trials that investigate effects on multiple subpopulations - especially when a treatment has marginal or no benefit for the overall population but might have significant benefit for a particular subpopulation. Motivated by this need, we propose Syntax, an exploratory trial design that identifies subpopulations with positive treatment effect among many subpopulations. Syntax is sample efficient as it (i) recruits and allocates patients adaptively and (ii) estimates treatment effects by forming synthetic controls for each subpopulation that combines control samples from other subpopulations. We validate the performance of Syntax and provide insights into when it might have an advantage over conventional trial designs through experiments.

Deep Generative Symbolic Regression

Symbolic regression (SR) aims to discover concise closed-form mathematical equations from data, a task fundamental to scientific discovery. However, the problem is highly challenging because closed-form equations lie in a complex combinatorial search space. Existing methods, ranging from heuristic search to reinforcement learning, fail to scale with the number of input variables. We make the observation that closed-form equations often have structural characteristics and invariances (e.g., the commutative law) that could be further exploited to build more effective symbolic regression solutions. Motivated by this observation, our key contribution is to leverage pre-trained deep generative models to capture the intrinsic regularities of equations, thereby providing a solid foundation for subsequent optimization steps. We show that our novel formalism unifies several prominent approaches of symbolic regression and offers a new perspective to justify and improve on the previous ad hoc designs, such as the usage of cross-entropy loss during pre-training. Specifically, we propose an instantiation of our framework, Deep Generative Symbolic Regression (DGSR). In our experiments, we show that DGSR achieves a higher recovery rate of true equations in the setting of a larger number of input variables, and it is more computationally efficient at inference time than state-of-the-art RL symbolic regression solutions.