Probabilistic Forecasting with Stochastic Interpolants and Föllmer Processes

We propose a framework for probabilistic forecasting of dynamical systems based on generative modeling. Given observations of the system state over time, we formulate the forecasting problem as sampling from the conditional distribution of the future system state given its current state. To this end, we leverage the framework of stochastic interpolants, which facilitates the construction of a generative model between an arbitrary base distribution and the target. We design a fictitious, non-physical stochastic dynamics that takes as initial condition the current system state and produces as output a sample from the target conditional distribution in finite time and without bias. This process therefore maps a point mass centered at the current state onto a probabilistic ensemble of forecasts. We prove that the drift coefficient entering the stochastic differential equation (SDE) achieving this task is non-singular, and that it can be learned efficiently by square loss regression over the time-series data. We show that the drift and the diffusion coefficients of this SDE can be adjusted after training, and that a specific choice that minimizes the impact of the estimation error gives a F\"ollmer process. We highlight the utility of our approach on several complex, high-dimensional forecasting problems, including stochastically forced Navier-Stokes and video prediction on the KTH and CLEVRER datasets.

SiT: Exploring Flow and Diffusion-based Generative Models with Scalable Interpolant Transformers

We present Scalable Interpolant Transformers (SiT), a family of generative models built on the backbone of Diffusion Transformers (DiT). The interpolant framework, which allows for connecting two distributions in a more flexible way than standard diffusion models, makes possible a modular study of various design choices impacting generative models built on dynamical transport: using discrete vs. continuous time learning, deciding the objective for the model to learn, choosing the interpolant connecting the distributions, and deploying a deterministic or stochastic sampler. By carefully introducing the above ingredients, SiT surpasses DiT uniformly across model sizes on the conditional ImageNet 256x256 benchmark using the exact same backbone, number of parameters, and GFLOPs. By exploring various diffusion coefficients, which can be tuned separately from learning, SiT achieves an FID-50K score of 2.06.

Learning to Sample Better

These lecture notes provide an introduction to recent advances in generative modeling methods based on the dynamical transportation of measures, by means of which samples from a simple base measure are mapped to samples from a target measure of interest. Special emphasis is put on the applications of these methods to Monte-Carlo (MC) sampling techniques, such as importance sampling and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) schemes. In this context, it is shown how the maps can be learned variationally using data generated by MC sampling, and how they can in turn be used to improve such sampling in a positive feedback loop.

Stochastic interpolants with data-dependent couplings

Generative models inspired by dynamical transport of measure -- such as flows and diffusions -- construct a continuous-time map between two probability densities. Conventionally, one of these is the target density, only accessible through samples, while the other is taken as a simple base density that is data-agnostic. In this work, using the framework of stochastic interpolants, we formalize how to \textit{couple} the base and the target densities. This enables us to incorporate information about class labels or continuous embeddings to construct dynamical transport maps that serve as conditional generative models. We show that these transport maps can be learned by solving a simple square loss regression problem analogous to the standard independent setting. We demonstrate the usefulness of constructing dependent couplings in practice through experiments in super-resolution and in-painting.

Multimarginal generative modeling with stochastic interpolants

Given a set of $K$ probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

Normalizing flows for lattice gauge theory in arbitrary space-time dimension

Applications of normalizing flows to the sampling of field configurations in lattice gauge theory have so far been explored almost exclusively in two space-time dimensions. We report new algorithmic developments of gauge-equivariant flow architectures facilitating the generalization to higher-dimensional lattice geometries. Specifically, we discuss masked autoregressive transformations with tractable and unbiased Jacobian determinants, a key ingredient for scalable and asymptotically exact flow-based sampling algorithms. For concreteness, results from a proof-of-principle application to SU(3) lattice gauge theory in four space-time dimensions are reported.

Stochastic Interpolants: A Unifying Framework for Flows and Diffusions

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. Remarkably, we show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for any of our generative models built upon stochastic dynamics. By contrast, we establish that generative models based upon a deterministic dynamics must, in addition, control the Fisher divergence between the target and the model. We also construct estimators for the likelihood and the cross-entropy of interpolant-based generative models, discuss connections with other stochastic bridges, and demonstrate that such models recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant.

Aspects of scaling and scalability for flow-based sampling of lattice QCD

Recent applications of machine-learned normalizing flows to sampling in lattice field theory suggest that such methods may be able to mitigate critical slowing down and topological freezing. However, these demonstrations have been at the scale of toy models, and it remains to be determined whether they can be applied to state-of-the-art lattice quantum chromodynamics calculations. Assessing the viability of sampling algorithms for lattice field theory at scale has traditionally been accomplished using simple cost scaling laws, but as we discuss in this work, their utility is limited for flow-based approaches. We conclude that flow-based approaches to sampling are better thought of as a broad family of algorithms with different scaling properties, and that scalability must be assessed experimentally.

Building Normalizing Flows with Stochastic Interpolants

A simple generative model based on a continuous-time normalizing flow between any pair of base and target distributions is proposed. The velocity field of this flow is inferred from the probability current of a time-dependent distribution that interpolates between the base and the target in finite time. Unlike conventional normalizing flow inference methods based the maximum likelihood principle, which require costly backpropagation through ODE solvers, our interpolant approach leads to a simple quadratic loss for the velocity itself which is expressed in terms of expectations that are readily amenable to empirical estimation. The flow can be used to generate samples from either the base or target, and can be used to estimate the likelihood at any time along the interpolant. The approach is contextualized in its relation to diffusions. In particular, in situations where the base is a Gaussian distribution, we show that the velocity of our normalizing flow can also be used to construct a diffusion model to sample the target as well as estimating its score. This allows one to map methods based on stochastic differential equations to those of ordinary differential equations, simplifying the mechanics of the model, but capturing equivalent dynamics. Benchmarking on density estimation tasks illustrates that the learned flow can match and surpass maximum likelihood continuous flows at a fraction of the conventional ODE training costs.