Don't Pass$\mathtt{@}k$: A Bayesian Framework for Large Language Model Evaluation

Pass$@k$ is widely used to report performance for LLM reasoning, but it often yields unstable, misleading rankings, especially when the number of trials (samples) is limited and compute is constrained. We present a principled Bayesian evaluation framework that replaces Pass$@k$ and average accuracy over $N$ trials (avg$@N$) with posterior estimates of a model's underlying success probability and credible intervals, yielding stable rankings and a transparent decision rule for differences. Evaluation outcomes are modeled as categorical (not just 0/1) with a Dirichlet prior, giving closed-form expressions for the posterior mean and uncertainty of any weighted rubric and enabling the use of prior evidence when appropriate. Theoretically, under a uniform prior, the Bayesian posterior mean is order-equivalent to average accuracy (Pass$@1$), explaining its empirical robustness while adding principled uncertainty. Empirically, in simulations with known ground-truth success rates and on AIME'24/'25, HMMT'25, and BrUMO'25, the Bayesian/avg procedure achieves faster convergence and greater rank stability than Pass$@k$ and recent variants, enabling reliable comparisons at far smaller sample counts. The framework clarifies when observed gaps are statistically meaningful (non-overlapping credible intervals) versus noise, and it naturally extends to graded, rubric-based evaluations. Together, these results recommend replacing Pass$@k$ for LLM evaluation and ranking with a posterior-based, compute-efficient protocol that unifies binary and non-binary evaluation while making uncertainty explicit. Code is available at https://mohsenhariri.github.io/bayes-kit

PATCH: a deep learning method to assess heterogeneity of artistic practice in historical paintings

The history of art has seen significant shifts in the manner in which artworks are created, making understanding of creative processes a central question in technical art history. In the Renaissance and Early Modern period, paintings were largely produced by master painters directing workshops of apprentices who often contributed to projects. The masters varied significantly in artistic and managerial styles, meaning different combinations of artists and implements might be seen both between masters and within workshops or even individual canvases. Information on how different workshops were managed and the processes by which artworks were created remains elusive. Machine learning methods have potential to unearth new information about artists' creative processes by extending the analysis of brushwork to a microscopic scale. Analysis of workshop paintings, however, presents a challenge in that documentation of the artists and materials involved is sparse, meaning external examples are not available to train networks to recognize their contributions. Here we present a novel machine learning approach we call pairwise assignment training for classifying heterogeneity (PATCH) that is capable of identifying individual artistic practice regimes with no external training data, or "ground truth." The method achieves unsupervised results by supervised means, and outperforms both simple statistical procedures and unsupervised machine learning methods. We apply this method to two historical paintings by the Spanish Renaissance master, El Greco: The Baptism of Christ and Christ on the Cross with Landscape, and our findings regarding the former potentially challenge previous work that has assigned the painting to workshop members. Further, the results of our analyses create a measure of heterogeneity of artistic practice that can be used to characterize artworks across time and space.

Machine learning in and out of equilibrium

The algorithms used to train neural networks, like stochastic gradient descent (SGD), have close parallels to natural processes that navigate a high-dimensional parameter space -- for example protein folding or evolution. Our study uses a Fokker-Planck approach, adapted from statistical physics, to explore these parallels in a single, unified framework. We focus in particular on the stationary state of the system in the long-time limit, which in conventional SGD is out of equilibrium, exhibiting persistent currents in the space of network parameters. As in its physical analogues, the current is associated with an entropy production rate for any given training trajectory. The stationary distribution of these rates obeys the integral and detailed fluctuation theorems -- nonequilibrium generalizations of the second law of thermodynamics. We validate these relations in two numerical examples, a nonlinear regression network and MNIST digit classification. While the fluctuation theorems are universal, there are other aspects of the stationary state that are highly sensitive to the training details. Surprisingly, the effective loss landscape and diffusion matrix that determine the shape of the stationary distribution vary depending on the simple choice of minibatching done with or without replacement. We can take advantage of this nonequilibrium sensitivity to engineer an equilibrium stationary state for a particular application: sampling from a posterior distribution of network weights in Bayesian machine learning. We propose a new variation of stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) that harnesses without replacement minibatching. In an example system where the posterior is exactly known, this SGWORLD algorithm outperforms SGLD, converging to the posterior orders of magnitude faster as a function of the learning rate.