A Two-Stage Interpretable Matching Framework for Causal Inference

Matching in causal inference from observational data aims to construct treatment and control groups with similar distributions of covariates, thereby reducing confounding and ensuring an unbiased estimation of treatment effects. This matched sample closely mimics a randomized controlled trial (RCT), thus improving the quality of causal estimates. We introduce a novel Two-stage Interpretable Matching (TIM) framework for transparent and interpretable covariate matching. In the first stage, we perform exact matching across all available covariates. For treatment and control units without an exact match in the first stage, we proceed to the second stage. Here, we iteratively refine the matching process by removing the least significant confounder in each iteration and attempting exact matching on the remaining covariates. We learn a distance metric for the dropped covariates to quantify closeness to the treatment unit(s) within the corresponding strata. We used these high- quality matches to estimate the conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). To validate TIM, we conducted experiments on synthetic datasets with varying association structures and correlations. We assessed its performance by measuring bias in CATE estimation and evaluating multivariate overlap between treatment and control groups before and after matching. Additionally, we apply TIM to a real-world healthcare dataset from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to estimate the causal effect of high cholesterol on diabetes. Our results demonstrate that TIM improves CATE estimates, increases multivariate overlap, and scales effectively to high-dimensional data, making it a robust tool for causal inference in observational data.

Feature Selection for Causal Inference from High Dimensional Observational Data with Outcome Adaptive Elastic Net

Feature selection is an extensively studied technique in the machine learning literature where the main objective is to identify the subset of features that provides the highest predictive power. However, in causal inference, our goal is to identify the set of variables that are associated with both the treatment variable and outcome (i.e., the confounders). While controlling for the confounding variables helps us to achieve an unbiased estimate of causal effect, recent research shows that controlling for purely outcome predictors along with the confounders can reduce the variance of the estimate. In this paper, we propose an Outcome Adaptive Elastic-Net (OAENet) method specifically designed for causal inference to select the confounders and outcome predictors for inclusion in the propensity score model or in the matching mechanism. OAENet provides two major advantages over existing methods: it performs superiorly on correlated data, and it can be applied to any matching method and any estimates. In addition, OAENet is computationally efficient compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Algorithms for Solving Nonlinear Binary Optimization Problems in Robust Causal Inference

Identifying cause-effect relation among variables is a key step in the decision-making process. While causal inference requires randomized experiments, researchers and policymakers are increasingly using observational studies to test causal hypotheses due to the wide availability of observational data and the infeasibility of experiments. The matching method is the most used technique to make causal inference from observational data. However, the pair assignment process in one-to-one matching creates uncertainty in the inference because of different choices made by the experimenter. Recently, discrete optimization models are proposed to tackle such uncertainty. Although a robust inference is possible with discrete optimization models, they produce nonlinear problems and lack scalability. In this work, we propose greedy algorithms to solve the robust causal inference test instances from observational data with continuous outcomes. We propose a unique framework to reformulate the nonlinear binary optimization problems as feasibility problems. By leveraging the structure of the feasibility formulation, we develop greedy schemes that are efficient in solving robust test problems. In many cases, the proposed algorithms achieve global optimal solution. We perform experiments on three real-world datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms and compare our result with the state-of-the-art solver. Our experiments show that the proposed algorithms significantly outperform the exact method in terms of computation time while achieving the same conclusion for causal tests. Both numerical experiments and complexity analysis demonstrate that the proposed algorithms ensure the scalability required for harnessing the power of big data in the decision-making process.

Resilient Supplier Selection in Logistic 4.0: An integrated approach of Fuzzy Multi-Attribute Decision Making and Multi-choice Goal Programming with Heterogeneous

Supplier selection problem has gained extensive attention in the prior studies. However, research based on Fuzzy Multi-Attribute Decision Making (F-MADM) approach in ranking resilient suppliers in logistic 4.0 is still in its infancy. Traditional MADM approach fails to address the resilient supplier selection problem in logistic 4.0 primarily because of the large amount of data concerning some attributes that are quantitative, yet difficult to process while making decisions. Besides, some qualitative attributes prevalent in logistic 4.0 entail imprecise perceptual or judgmental decision relevant information, and are substantially different than those considered in traditional suppler selection problems. This study, for the first time, develops a Decision Support System (DSS) that will help the decision maker to incorporate and process such imprecise heterogeneous data in a unified framework to rank a set of resilient suppliers in the logistic 4.0 environment. The proposed framework induces a triangular fuzzy number from large-scale temporal data using probability-possibility consistency principle. Large number of non-temporal data presented graphically are computed by extracting granular information that are imprecise in nature. Fuzzy linguistic variables are used to map the qualitative attributes. Finally, fuzzy based TOPSIS method is adopted to generate the ranking score of alternative suppliers. These ranking scores are used as input in a Multi-Choice Goal Programming (MCGP) model to determine optimal order allocation for respective suppliers. Finally, a sensitivity analysis assesses how the Cost versus Resilience Index (SCRI) changes when differential priorities are set for respective cost and resilience attributes.

A Possibility Distribution Based Multi-Criteria Decision Algorithm for Resilient Supplier Selection Problems

Resilient supplier selection problem is a key decision problem for an organization to gain competitive advantage. In the presence of multiple conflicting evaluation criteria, contradicting decision makers, and imprecise information sources, this problem becomes even more difficult to solve with the classical optimization approaches. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a viable alternative approach for handling the imprecise information associated with the evaluation proffered by the decision makers. In this work, we present a comprehensive algorithm for ranking a set of suppliers based on aggregated information obtained from crisp numerical assessments and reliability adjusted linguistic appraisals from a group of decision makers. We adapted two popular tools - Single Valued Neutrosophic Sets (SVNS) and Interval-valued fuzzy sets (IVFS) and extended them to incorporate both crisp and linguistic evaluations from the decision makers to obtain aggregated SVNS and IVFS. This information is then used to rank the suppliers by using TOPSIS method. We present a case study to illustrate the mechanism of the proposed algorithm and show sensitivity of the supplier ranking with respect to the priorities of evaluation criteria.