Modelling Customer Trajectories with Reinforcement Learning for Practical Retail Insights

Understanding customer movement within retail spaces is essential for optimizing store layouts. Real-world trajectory data can provide highly accurate insights, but collecting it is costly and often infeasible for many retailers. Heuristics such as Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) and Probabilistic Nearest Neighbours (PNN) are commonly used as inexpensive approximations, but actual customer trajectories deviate by an average of 28% from shortest paths, highlighting a tradeoff between accuracy and practicality. We propose an agent-based modelling framework that casts customer trajectory prediction as a maximum entropy reinforcement learning (RL) problem, balancing reward maximization with stochasticity to better reflect customers with bounded rationality. Using real-world trajectory data from a convenience store, we show that RL-generated trajectories align more closely with customer behaviour than TSP and PNN, providing more accurate estimates of impulse purchase rates and shelf traffic densities. Furthermore, only RL-based predictions yield repositioning decisions for impulse products that align with those derived from actual trajectory data, resulting in comparable estimated profit gains. Our work demonstrates that RL provides a practical, behaviourally grounded alternative that bridges the gap between oversimplified heuristics and data-intensive approaches, making accurate layout optimization more accessible. To encourage further research, the source code is available on GitHub.

Retail Analytics in the New Normal: The Influence of Artificial Intelligence and the Covid-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely disrupted the retail landscape and has accelerated the adoption of innovative technologies. A striking example relates to the proliferation of online grocery orders and the technology deployed to facilitate such logistics. In fact, for many retailers, this disruption was a wake-up call after which they started recognizing the power of data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI). In this article, we discuss the opportunities that AI can offer to retailers in the new normal retail landscape. Some of the techniques described have been applied at scale to adapt previously deployed AI models, whereas in other instances, fresh solutions needed to be developed to help retailers cope with recent disruptions, such as unexpected panic buying, retraining predictive models, and leveraging online-offline synergies.