Regression Prior Networks

Prior Networks are a recently developed class of models which yield interpretable measures of uncertainty and have been shown to outperform state-of-the-art ensemble approaches on a range of tasks. They can also be used to distill an ensemble of models via Ensemble Distribution Distillation (EnD$^2$), such that its accuracy, calibration and uncertainty estimates are retained within a single model. However, Prior Networks have so far been developed only for classification tasks. This work extends Prior Networks and EnD$^2$ to regression tasks by considering the Normal-Wishart distribution. The properties of Regression Prior Networks are demonstrated on synthetic data, selected UCI datasets and a monocular depth estimation task, where they yield performance competitive with ensemble approaches.

Uncertainty in Structured Prediction

Uncertainty estimation is important for ensuring safety and robustness of AI systems, especially for high-risk applications. While much progress has recently been made in this area, most research has focused on un-structured prediction, such as image classification and regression tasks. However, while task-specific forms of confidence score estimation have been investigated by the speech and machine translation communities, limited work has investigated general uncertainty estimation approaches for structured prediction. Thus, this work aims to investigate uncertainty estimation for structured prediction tasks within a single unified and interpretable probabilistic ensemble-based framework. We consider uncertainty estimation for sequence data at the token-level and complete sequence-level, provide interpretations for, and applications of, various measures of uncertainty and discuss the challenges associated with obtaining them. This work also explores the practical challenges associated with obtaining uncertainty estimates for structured predictions tasks and provides baselines for token-level error detection, sequence-level prediction rejection, and sequence-level out-of-domain input detection using ensembles of auto-regressive transformer models trained on the WMT'14 English-French and WMT'17 English-German translation and LibriSpeech speech recognition datasets.

Confidence Estimation for Black Box Automatic Speech Recognition Systems Using Lattice Recurrent Neural Networks

Recently, there has been growth in providers of speech transcription services enabling others to leverage technology they would not normally be able to use. As a result, speech-enabled solutions have become commonplace. Their success critically relies on the quality, accuracy, and reliability of the underlying speech transcription systems. Those black box systems, however, offer limited means for quality control as only word sequences are typically available. This paper examines this limited resource scenario for confidence estimation, a measure commonly used to assess transcription reliability. In particular, it explores what other sources of word and sub-word level information available in the transcription process could be used to improve confidence scores. To encode all such information this paper extends lattice recurrent neural networks to handle sub-words. Experimental results using the IARPA OpenKWS 2016 evaluation system show that the use of additional information yields significant gains in confidence estimation accuracy.

Reverse KL-Divergence Training of Prior Networks: Improved Uncertainty and Adversarial Robustness

Ensemble approaches for uncertainty estimation have recently been applied to the tasks of misclassification detection, out-of-distribution input detection and adversarial attack detection. Prior Networks have been proposed as an approach to efficiently emulating an ensemble of models by parameterising a Dirichlet prior distribution over output distributions. These models have been shown to outperform ensemble approaches, such as Monte-Carlo Dropout, on the task of out-of-distribution input detection. However, scaling Prior Networks to complex datasets with many classes is difficult using the training criteria originally proposed. This paper makes two contributions. Firstly, we show that the appropriate training criterion for Prior Networks is the reverse KL-divergence between Dirichlet distributions. Using this loss we successfully train Prior Networks on image classification datasets with up to 200 classes and improve out-of-distribution detection performance. Secondly, taking advantage of the new training criterion, this paper investigates using Prior Networks to detect adversarial attacks. It is shown that the construction of successful adaptive whitebox attacks, which affect the prediction and evade detection, against Prior Networks trained on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 takes a greater amount of computational effort than against standard neural networks, adversarially trained neural networks and dropout-defended networks.

Ensemble Distribution Distillation

Ensembles of models often yield improvements in system performance. They have also been empirically shown to yield robust measures of uncertainty, and are capable of distinguishing between different forms of uncertainty. However, ensembles come at a computational and memory cost which may be prohibitive for many applications. There has been significant work done on the distillation of an ensemble into a single model. Such approaches decrease computational cost and allow a single model to achieve an accuracy comparable to that of an ensemble. However, information about the diversity of the ensemble, which can yield estimates of different forms of uncertainty, is lost. Recently, a new class of models called Prior Networks has been proposed, which allows a single neural network to explicitly model a distribution over output distributions. In this work, Ensemble Distillation and Prior Networks are combined to yield a novel approach called Ensemble Distribution Distillation (EnD$^2$), in which the distribution of an ensemble is distilled into a single Prior Network. This enables a single model to retain both the improved classification performance as well as measures of diversity of the ensemble. The properties of EnD$^2$ have been investigated on both an artificial dataset, and on the CIFAR-10 dataset, where it is shown that EnD$^2$ can approach the performance of an ensemble, and outperforms both standard DNNs and standard Ensemble Distillation.

Prior Networks for Detection of Adversarial Attacks

Adversarial examples are considered a serious issue for safety critical applications of AI, such as finance, autonomous vehicle control and medicinal applications. Though significant work has resulted in increased robustness of systems to these attacks, systems are still vulnerable to well-crafted attacks. To address this problem, several adversarial attack detection methods have been proposed. However, a system can still be vulnerable to adversarial samples that are designed to specifically evade these detection methods. One recent detection scheme that has shown good performance is based on uncertainty estimates derived from Monte-Carlo dropout ensembles. Prior Networks, a new method of estimating predictive uncertainty, has been shown to outperform Monte-Carlo dropout on a range of tasks. One of the advantages of this approach is that the behaviour of a Prior Network can be explicitly tuned to, for example, predict high uncertainty in regions where there are no training data samples. In this work, Prior Networks are applied to adversarial attack detection using measures of uncertainty in a similar fashion to Monte-Carlo Dropout. Detection based on measures of uncertainty derived from DNNs and Monte-Carlo dropout ensembles are used as a baseline. Prior Networks are shown to significantly out-perform these baseline approaches over a range of adversarial attacks in both detection of whitebox and blackbox configurations. Even when the adversarial attacks are constructed with full knowledge of the detection mechanism, it is shown to be highly challenging to successfully generate an adversarial sample.

Confidence Estimation and Deletion Prediction Using Bidirectional Recurrent Neural Networks

The standard approach to assess reliability of automatic speech transcriptions is through the use of confidence scores. If accurate, these scores provide a flexible mechanism to flag transcription errors for upstream and downstream applications. One challenging type of errors that recognisers make are deletions. These errors are not accounted for by the standard confidence estimation schemes and are hard to rectify in the upstream and downstream processing. High deletion rates are prominent in limited resource and highly mismatched training/testing conditions studied under IARPA Babel and Material programs. This paper looks at the use of bidirectional recurrent neural networks to yield confidence estimates in predicted as well as deleted words. Several simple schemes are examined for combination. To assess usefulness of this approach, the combined confidence score is examined for untranscribed data selection that favours transcriptions with lower deletion errors. Experiments are conducted using IARPA Babel/Material program languages.

Bi-Directional Lattice Recurrent Neural Networks for Confidence Estimation

The standard approach to mitigate errors made by an automatic speech recognition system is to use confidence scores associated with each predicted word. In the simplest case, these scores are word posterior probabilities whilst more complex schemes utilise bi-directional recurrent neural network (BiRNN) models. A number of upstream and downstream applications, however, rely on confidence scores assigned not only to 1-best hypotheses but to all words found in confusion networks or lattices. These include but are not limited to speaker adaptation, semi-supervised training and information retrieval. Although word posteriors could be used in those applications as confidence scores, they are known to have reliability issues. To make improved confidence scores more generally available, this paper shows how BiRNNs can be extended from 1-best sequences to confusion network and lattice structures. Experiments are conducted using one of the Cambridge University submissions to the IARPA OpenKWS 2016 competition. The results show that confusion network and lattice-based BiRNNs can provide a significant improvement in confidence estimation.