Staying Alive: Uncensored Survival Analysis with Tabular Foundation Models

Survival Analysis (SA) is a statistical framework that models the time span until some event of interest occurs. Widely used in several domains, including healthcare and churn prediction, a central challenge in its applicability stems from the time of the event being partially observed or \emph{right-censoring}. Tabular Foundation Models (TFM) have attracted significant interest in recent years due to their ability to perform prediction tasks in a single forward pass, requiring no dataset-specific parameter fitting. Despite their success, their application to prediction tasks on time-to-event data remains difficult due to right censoring. In this work, we present a training-free method to survival regression by leveraging TFMs to both predict the time of the event and iteratively impute right-censored data. Our method uses a TFM to construct an Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model requiring no training beyond fitting a single scalar parameter. Subsequently, by building on the Buckley-James estimator, we introduce a non-parametric in-context estimator for right-censored data. Our experiments on standard survival analysis benchmarks show that our method is competitive with several parametric and semi-parametric survival regression models that require training, including Cox regression and parametric AFT models.

Democratizing Tabular Data Access with an Open$\unicode{x2013}$Source Synthetic$\unicode{x2013}$Data SDK

Machine learning development critically depends on access to high-quality data. However, increasing restrictions due to privacy, proprietary interests, and ethical concerns have created significant barriers to data accessibility. Synthetic data offers a viable solution by enabling safe, broad data usage without compromising sensitive information. This paper presents the MOSTLY AI Synthetic Data Software Development Kit (SDK), an open-source toolkit designed specifically for synthesizing high-quality tabular data. The SDK integrates robust features such as differential privacy guarantees, fairness-aware data generation, and automated quality assurance into a flexible and accessible Python interface. Leveraging the TabularARGN autoregressive framework, the SDK supports diverse data types and complex multi-table and sequential datasets, delivering competitive performance with notable improvements in speed and usability. Currently deployed both as a cloud service and locally installable software, the SDK has seen rapid adoption, highlighting its practicality in addressing real-world data bottlenecks and promoting widespread data democratization.

Deep End-to-End Survival Analysis with Temporal Consistency

In this study, we present a novel Survival Analysis algorithm designed to efficiently handle large-scale longitudinal data. Our approach draws inspiration from Reinforcement Learning principles, particularly the Deep Q-Network paradigm, extending Temporal Learning concepts to Survival Regression. A central idea in our method is temporal consistency, a hypothesis that past and future outcomes in the data evolve smoothly over time. Our framework uniquely incorporates temporal consistency into large datasets by providing a stable training signal that captures long-term temporal relationships and ensures reliable updates. Additionally, the method supports arbitrarily complex architectures, enabling the modeling of intricate temporal dependencies, and allows for end-to-end training. Through numerous experiments we provide empirical evidence demonstrating our framework's ability to exploit temporal consistency across datasets of varying sizes. Moreover, our algorithm outperforms benchmarks on datasets with long sequences, demonstrating its ability to capture long-term patterns. Finally, ablation studies show how our method enhances training stability.

Learning Generative Models with Goal-conditioned Reinforcement Learning

We present a novel, alternative framework for learning generative models with goal-conditioned reinforcement learning. We define two agents, a goal conditioned agent (GC-agent) and a supervised agent (S-agent). Given a user-input initial state, the GC-agent learns to reconstruct the training set. In this context, elements in the training set are the goals. During training, the S-agent learns to imitate the GC-agent while remaining agnostic of the goals. At inference we generate new samples with the S-agent. Following a similar route as in variational auto-encoders, we derive an upper bound on the negative log-likelihood that consists of a reconstruction term and a divergence between the GC-agent policy and the (goal-agnostic) S-agent policy. We empirically demonstrate that our method is able to generate diverse and high quality samples in the task of image synthesis.