Hindsight Quality Prediction Experiments in Multi-Candidate Human-Post-Edited Machine Translation

This paper investigates two complementary paradigms for predicting machine translation (MT) quality: source-side difficulty prediction and candidate-side quality estimation (QE). The rapid adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs) into MT workflows is reshaping the research landscape, yet its impact on established quality prediction paradigms remains underexplored. We study this issue through a series of "hindsight" experiments on a unique, multi-candidate dataset resulting from a genuine MT post-editing (MTPE) project. The dataset consists of over 6,000 English source segments with nine translation hypotheses from a diverse set of traditional neural MT systems and advanced LLMs, all evaluated against a single, final human post-edited reference. Using Kendall's rank correlation, we assess the predictive power of source-side difficulty metrics, candidate-side QE models and position heuristics against two gold-standard scores: TER (as a proxy for post-editing effort) and COMET (as a proxy for human judgment). Our findings highlight that the architectural shift towards LLMs alters the reliability of established quality prediction methods while simultaneously mitigating previous challenges in document-level translation.

Explicit Learning and the LLM in Machine Translation

This study explores the capacity of large language models (LLMs) for explicit learning, a process involving the assimilation of metalinguistic explanations to carry out language tasks. Using constructed languages generated by cryptographic means as controlled test environments, we designed experiments to assess an LLM's ability to explicitly learn and apply grammar rules. Our results demonstrate that while LLMs possess a measurable capacity for explicit learning, this ability diminishes as the complexity of the linguistic phenomena at hand increases. Supervised fine-tuning on chains of thought significantly enhances LLM performance but struggles to generalize to typologically novel or more complex linguistic features. These findings point to the need for more diverse training sets and alternative fine-tuning strategies to further improve explicit learning by LLMs.