Fraud Detection in Cryptocurrency Markets with Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks

Technological advancements in cryptocurrency markets have increased accessibility for investors, but concurrently exposed them to the risks of market manipulations. Existing fraud detection mechanisms typically rely on machine learning methods that treat each financial asset (i.e., token) and its related transactions independently. However, market manipulation strategies are rarely isolated events, but are rather characterized by coordination, repetition, and frequent transfers among related assets. This suggests that relational structure constitutes an integral component of the signal and can be effectively represented through graphical means. In this paper, we propose three graph construction methods that rely on aggregated hourly market data. The proposed graphs are processed by a unified spatio-temporal Graph Neural Network (GNN) architecture that combines attention-based spatial aggregation with temporal Transformer encoding. We evaluate our methodology on a real-world dataset comprised of pump-and-dump schemes in cryptocurrency markets, spanning a period of over three years. Our comparative results showcase that our graph-based models achieve significant improvements over standard machine learning baselines in detecting anomalous events. Our work highlights that learned market connectivity provides substantial gains for detecting coordinated market manipulation schemes.

In-Context Symbolic Regression for Robustness-Improved Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

Symbolic regression aims to replace black-box predictors with concise analytical expressions that can be inspected and validated in scientific machine learning. Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) are well suited to this goal because each connection between adjacent units (an "edge") is parametrised by a learnable univariate function that can, in principle, be replaced by a symbolic operator. In practice, however, symbolic extraction is a bottleneck: the standard KAN-to-symbol approach fits operators to each learned edge function in isolation, making the discrete choice sensitive to initialisation and non-convex parameter fitting, and ignoring how local substitutions interact through the full network. We study in-context symbolic regression for operator extraction in KANs, and present two complementary instantiations. Greedy in-context Symbolic Regression (GSR) performs greedy, in-context selection by choosing edge replacements according to end-to-end loss improvement after brief fine-tuning. Gated Matching Pursuit (GMP) amortises this in-context selection by training a differentiable gated operator layer that places an operator library behind sparse gates on each edge; after convergence, gates are discretised (optionally followed by a short in-context greedy refinement pass). We quantify robustness via one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) hyper-parameter sweeps and assess both predictive error and qualitative consistency of recovered formulas. Across several experiments, greedy in-context symbolic regression achieves up to 99.8% reduction in median OFAT test MSE.