A False Average: Chain-of-Thought Monitors Collapse Where They Are the Only Defense

Chain-of-thought (CoT) monitoring is meant to catch the reward hacks that look clean in the actions and betray themselves only in the reasoning. We show that this is exactly where an adversary who controls the reasoning can defeat it. Rewriting only an agent's reasoning to read as good-faith engineering, while copying every command and output verbatim so the exploit is unchanged, drops a held-out monitor's catch rate on that subset from about 95% to under 11% in one gradient-free shot. A monitor's aggregate accuracy is a false average: dominated by hacks the actions give away, it hides the near-total collapse this rewrite produces on the subset where CoT monitoring is the only signal. The attack transfers across monitor families and agent models, reproduces with live agents, though against a calibrated monitor evasion concentrates in the strongest agent. Trace-only defenses recover it only partially, even one primed on the attack, because the rewrite stays truthful about what happened and lies only about intent; only information from outside the trace helps substantially. A probe on an open-weight surrogate monitor's activations separates the hacks its verdict misses, but a causal control shows this is a detector, not evidence the monitor secretly knows.

Plausible Deniability Guarantees for Whistleblowers

Whistleblowers are a key safeguard against organizational wrongdoing, but the threat of retaliation deters reporting. Existing whistleblower-protection proposals lack formal privacy guarantees, and existing differential privacy mechanisms do not directly target the natural threat model -- one in which the audited organization itself observes auditor selection decisions and uses them to identify reporters. We formalize protection against a strong-adversary threat model as per-report $(0, δ)$-differential privacy on the transcript of audit selections. Within this framework we prove that a natural approach -- randomized response applied at the selection step -- can never outperform uniform random auditing by more than $δ$ at any horizon. We then give a generic mechanism that reduces private auditing to private continual counting: any $(0, δ)$-DP continual counter plugs in by post-processing, and the audit transcript inherits the same per-report guarantee. Instantiating the reduction with a recent work in continual counting yields per-report $(0, δ)$-DP with noise scaling as $O(\sqrt{\log T})$ across a horizon of $T$ audit decisions. A utility theorem shows that the selection error vanishes whenever the noisy report gap between the most-reported organization and the runner-up grows faster than $\sqrt{\log T}$. Simulations show a substantial improvement over randomized response.

Agentic Uncertainty Reveals Agentic Overconfidence

Can AI agents predict whether they will succeed at a task? We study agentic uncertainty by eliciting success probability estimates before, during, and after task execution. All results exhibit agentic overconfidence: some agents that succeed only 22% of the time predict 77% success. Counterintuitively, pre-execution assessment with strictly less information tends to yield better discrimination than standard post-execution review, though differences are not always significant. Adversarial prompting reframing assessment as bug-finding achieves the best calibration.

An Auditing Test To Detect Behavioral Shift in Language Models

As language models (LMs) approach human-level performance, a comprehensive understanding of their behavior becomes crucial. This includes evaluating capabilities, biases, task performance, and alignment with societal values. Extensive initial evaluations, including red teaming and diverse benchmarking, can establish a model's behavioral profile. However, subsequent fine-tuning or deployment modifications may alter these behaviors in unintended ways. We present a method for continual Behavioral Shift Auditing (BSA) in LMs. Building on recent work in hypothesis testing, our auditing test detects behavioral shifts solely through model generations. Our test compares model generations from a baseline model to those of the model under scrutiny and provides theoretical guarantees for change detection while controlling false positives. The test features a configurable tolerance parameter that adjusts sensitivity to behavioral changes for different use cases. We evaluate our approach using two case studies: monitoring changes in (a) toxicity and (b) translation performance. We find that the test is able to detect meaningful changes in behavior distributions using just hundreds of examples.