A Fully Automated and Explainable Algorithm for the Prediction of Malignant Transformation in Oral Epithelial Dysplasia

Oral epithelial dysplasia (OED) is a premalignant histopathological diagnosis given to lesions of the oral cavity. Its grading suffers from significant inter-/intra- observer variability, and does not reliably predict malignancy progression, potentially leading to suboptimal treatment decisions. To address this, we developed a novel artificial intelligence algorithm that can assign an Oral Malignant Transformation (OMT) risk score, based on histological patterns in the in Haematoxylin and Eosin stained whole slide images, to quantify the risk of OED progression. The algorithm is based on the detection and segmentation of nuclei within (and around) the epithelium using an in-house segmentation model. We then employed a shallow neural network fed with interpretable morphological/spatial features, emulating histological markers. We conducted internal cross-validation on our development cohort (Sheffield; n = 193 cases) followed by independent validation on two external cohorts (Birmingham and Belfast; n = 92 cases). The proposed OMTscore yields an AUROC = 0.74 in predicting whether an OED progresses to malignancy or not. Survival analyses showed the prognostic value of our OMTscore for predicting malignancy transformation, when compared to the manually-assigned WHO and binary grades. Analysis of the correctly predicted cases elucidated the presence of peri-epithelial and epithelium-infiltrating lymphocytes in the most predictive patches of cases that transformed (p < 0.0001). This is the first study to propose a completely automated algorithm for predicting OED transformation based on interpretable nuclear features, whilst being validated on external datasets. The algorithm shows better-than-human-level performance for prediction of OED malignant transformation and offers a promising solution to the challenges of grading OED in routine clinical practice.