Field-level weak lensing cosmology with $<100$ simulations using multifidelity simulation-based inference

We perform a realistic KiDS-Legacy mock analysis with field-level neural compression and simulation-based inference using fewer than 100 $N$-body simulations. The weak lensing shear field encodes substantially more cosmological information than standard two-point summary statistics such as the power spectrum. Field-level inference can fully exploit this information, but physical realism at the field-level requires very high-fidelity simulations. This poses a major challenge for simulation-based inference (SBI): accurate empirical density modelling and deep-learning-based neural compression require many training simulations, but achieving physical realism at the field level makes each simulation extremely costly. We demonstrate that multifidelity SBI can alleviate this tension by substantially reducing the number of high-fidelity simulations needed for accurate cosmological inference. We pre-train neural inference models on realistic KiDS-Legacy-like shear mocks using fast log-normal GLASS simulations and fine-tune them on a small set of high-fidelity $N$-body simulations. We show that between $60$-$100$ high-fidelity simulations are sufficient to obtain informative and well-calibrated cosmological posteriors, enabling an order-of-magnitude reduction in simulation cost for accurate field-level inference in a realistic setting.

Savage-Dickey density ratio estimation with normalizing flows for Bayesian model comparison

A core motivation of science is to evaluate which scientific model best explains observed data. Bayesian model comparison provides a principled statistical approach to comparing scientific models and has found widespread application within cosmology and astrophysics. Calculating the Bayesian evidence is computationally challenging, especially as we continue to explore increasingly more complex models. The Savage-Dickey density ratio (SDDR) provides a method to calculate the Bayes factor (evidence ratio) between two nested models using only posterior samples from the super model. The SDDR requires the calculation of a normalised marginal distribution over the extra parameters of the super model, which has typically been performed using classical density estimators, such as histograms. Classical density estimators, however, can struggle to scale to high-dimensional settings. We introduce a neural SDDR approach using normalizing flows that can scale to settings where the super model contains a large number of extra parameters. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this neural SDDR methodology applied to both toy and realistic cosmological examples. For a field-level inference setting, we show that Bayes factors computed for a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) and simulation-based inference (SBI) approach are consistent, providing further validation that SBI extracts as much cosmological information from the field as the BHM approach. The SDDR estimator with normalizing flows is implemented in the open-source harmonic Python package.

Simulation-based inference with scattering representations: scattering is all you need

We demonstrate the first successful use of scattering representations without further compression for simulation-based inference (SBI) with images (i.e. field-level), illustrated with a cosmological case study. Scattering representations provide a highly effective representational space for subsequent learning tasks, although the higher dimensional compressed space introduces challenges. We overcome these through spatial averaging, coupled with more expressive density estimators. Compared to alternative methods, such an approach does not require additional simulations for either training or computing derivatives, is interpretable, and resilient to covariate shift. As expected, we show that a scattering only approach extracts more information than traditional second order summary statistics.