Machine Learning for Soccer Match Result Prediction

Machine learning has become a common approach to predicting the outcomes of soccer matches, and the body of literature in this domain has grown substantially in the past decade and a half. This chapter discusses available datasets, the types of models and features, and ways of evaluating model performance in this application domain. The aim of this chapter is to give a broad overview of the current state and potential future developments in machine learning for soccer match results prediction, as a resource for those interested in conducting future studies in the area. Our main findings are that while gradient-boosted tree models such as CatBoost, applied to soccer-specific ratings such as pi-ratings, are currently the best-performing models on datasets containing only goals as the match features, there needs to be a more thorough comparison of the performance of deep learning models and Random Forest on a range of datasets with different types of features. Furthermore, new rating systems using both player- and team-level information and incorporating additional information from, e.g., spatiotemporal tracking and event data, could be investigated further. Finally, the interpretability of match result prediction models needs to be enhanced for them to be more useful for team management.

Foul prediction with estimated poses from soccer broadcast video

Recent advances in computer vision have made significant progress in tracking and pose estimation of sports players. However, there have been fewer studies on behavior prediction with pose estimation in sports, in particular, the prediction of soccer fouls is challenging because of the smaller image size of each player and of difficulty in the usage of e.g., the ball and pose information. In our research, we introduce an innovative deep learning approach for anticipating soccer fouls. This method integrates video data, bounding box positions, image details, and pose information by curating a novel soccer foul dataset. Our model utilizes a combination of convolutional and recurrent neural networks (CNNs and RNNs) to effectively merge information from these four modalities. The experimental results show that our full model outperformed the ablated models, and all of the RNN modules, bounding box position and image, and estimated pose were useful for the foul prediction. Our findings have important implications for a deeper understanding of foul play in soccer and provide a valuable reference for future research and practice in this area.

Quantum Kernel t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding

Data visualization is important in understanding the characteristics of data that are difficult to see directly. It is used to visualize loss landscapes and optimization trajectories to analyze optimization performance. Popular optimization analysis is performed by visualizing a loss landscape around the reached local or global minimum using principal component analysis. However, this visualization depends on the variational parameters of a quantum circuit rather than quantum states, which makes it difficult to understand the mechanism of optimization process through the property of quantum states. Here, we propose a quantum data visualization method using quantum kernels, which enables us to offer fast and highly accurate visualization of quantum states. In our numerical experiments, we visualize hand-written digits dataset and apply $k$-nearest neighbor algorithm to the low-dimensional data to quantitatively evaluate our proposed method compared with a classical kernel method. As a result, our proposed method achieves comparable accuracy to the state-of-the-art classical kernel method, meaning that the proposed visualization method based on quantum machine learning does not degrade the separability of the input higher dimensional data. Furthermore, we visualize the optimization trajectories of finding the ground states of transverse field Ising model and successfully find the trajectory characteristics. Since quantum states are higher dimensional objects that can only be seen via observables, our visualization method, which inherits the similarity of quantum data, would be useful in understanding the behavior of quantum circuits and algorithms.

Continuous optimization by quantum adaptive distribution search

In this paper, we introduce the quantum adaptive distribution search (QuADS), a quantum continuous optimization algorithm that integrates Grover adaptive search (GAS) with the covariance matrix adaptation - evolution strategy (CMA-ES), a classical technique for continuous optimization. QuADS utilizes the quantum-based search capabilities of GAS and enhances them with the principles of CMA-ES for more efficient optimization. It employs a multivariate normal distribution for the initial state of the quantum search and repeatedly updates it throughout the optimization process. Our numerical experiments show that QuADS outperforms both GAS and CMA-ES. This is achieved through adaptive refinement of the initial state distribution rather than consistently using a uniform state, resulting in fewer oracle calls. This study presents an important step toward exploiting the potential of quantum computing for continuous optimization.

DRUformer: Enhancing the driving scene Important object detection with driving relationship self-understanding

Traffic accidents frequently lead to fatal injuries, contributing to over 50 million deaths until 2023. To mitigate driving hazards and ensure personal safety, it is crucial to assist vehicles in anticipating important objects during travel. Previous research on important object detection primarily assessed the importance of individual participants, treating them as independent entities and frequently overlooking the connections between these participants. Unfortunately, this approach has proven less effective in detecting important objects in complex scenarios. In response, we introduce Driving scene Relationship self-Understanding transformer (DRUformer), designed to enhance the important object detection task. The DRUformer is a transformer-based multi-modal important object detection model that takes into account the relationships between all the participants in the driving scenario. Recognizing that driving intention also significantly affects the detection of important objects during driving, we have incorporated a module for embedding driving intention. To assess the performance of our approach, we conducted a comparative experiment on the DRAMA dataset, pitting our model against other state-of-the-art (SOTA) models. The results demonstrated a noteworthy 16.2\% improvement in mIoU and a substantial 12.3\% boost in ACC compared to SOTA methods. Furthermore, we conducted a qualitative analysis of our model's ability to detect important objects across different road scenarios and classes, highlighting its effectiveness in diverse contexts. Finally, we conducted various ablation studies to assess the efficiency of the proposed modules in our DRUformer model.

Runner re-identification from single-view video in the open-world setting

In many sports, player re-identification is crucial for automatic video processing and analysis. However, most of the current studies on player re-identification in multi- or single-view sports videos focus on re-identification in the closed-world setting using labeled image dataset, and player re-identification in the open-world setting for automatic video analysis is not well developed. In this paper, we propose a runner re-identification system that directly processes single-view video to address the open-world setting. In the open-world setting, we cannot use labeled dataset and have to process video directly. The proposed system automatically processes raw video as input to identify runners, and it can identify runners even when they are framed out multiple times. For the automatic processing, we first detect the runners in the video using the pre-trained YOLOv8 and the fine-tuned EfficientNet. We then track the runners using ByteTrack and detect their shoes with the fine-tuned YOLOv8. Finally, we extract the image features of the runners using an unsupervised method using the gated recurrent unit autoencoder model. To improve the accuracy of runner re-identification, we use dynamic features of running sequence images. We evaluated the system on a running practice video dataset and showed that the proposed method identified runners with higher accuracy than one of the state-of-the-art models in unsupervised re-identification. We also showed that our unsupervised running dynamic feature extractor was effective for runner re-identification. Our runner re-identification system can be useful for the automatic analysis of running videos.

Evaluating Soccer Match Prediction Models: A Deep Learning Approach and Feature Optimization for Gradient-Boosted Trees

Machine learning models have become increasingly popular for predicting the results of soccer matches, however, the lack of publicly-available benchmark datasets has made model evaluation challenging. The 2023 Soccer Prediction Challenge required the prediction of match results first in terms of the exact goals scored by each team, and second, in terms of the probabilities for a win, draw, and loss. The original training set of matches and features, which was provided for the competition, was augmented with additional matches that were played between 4 April and 13 April 2023, representing the period after which the training set ended, but prior to the first matches that were to be predicted (upon which the performance was evaluated). A CatBoost model was employed using pi-ratings as the features, which were initially identified as the optimal choice for calculating the win/draw/loss probabilities. Notably, deep learning models have frequently been disregarded in this particular task. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to assess the performance of a deep learning model and determine the optimal feature set for a gradient-boosted tree model. The model was trained using the most recent five years of data, and three training and validation sets were used in a hyperparameter grid search. The results from the validation sets show that our model had strong performance and stability compared to previously published models from the 2017 Soccer Prediction Challenge for win/draw/loss prediction.

A Strategic Framework for Optimal Decisions in Football 1-vs-1 Shot-Taking Situations: An Integrated Approach of Machine Learning, Theory-Based Modeling, and Game Theory

Complex interactions between two opposing agents frequently occur in domains of machine learning, game theory, and other application domains. Quantitatively analyzing the strategies involved can provide an objective basis for decision-making. One such critical scenario is shot-taking in football, where decisions, such as whether the attacker should shoot or pass the ball and whether the defender should attempt to block the shot, play a crucial role in the outcome of the game. However, there are currently no effective data-driven and/or theory-based approaches to analyzing such situations. To address this issue, we proposed a novel framework to analyze such scenarios based on game theory, where we estimate the expected payoff with machine learning (ML) models, and additional features for ML models were extracted with a theory-based shot block model. Conventionally, successes or failures (1 or 0) are used as payoffs, while a success shot (goal) is extremely rare in football. Therefore, we proposed the Expected Probability of Shot On Target (xSOT) metric to evaluate players' actions even if the shot results in no goal; this allows for effective differentiation and comparison between different shots and even enables counterfactual shot situation analysis. In our experiments, we have validated the framework by comparing it with baseline and ablated models. Furthermore, we have observed a high correlation between the xSOT and existing metrics. This alignment of information suggests that xSOT provides valuable insights. Lastly, as an illustration, we studied optimal strategies in the World Cup 2022 and analyzed a shot situation in EURO 2020.

MNISQ: A Large-Scale Quantum Circuit Dataset for Machine Learning on/for Quantum Computers in the NISQ era

We introduce the first large-scale dataset, MNISQ, for both the Quantum and the Classical Machine Learning community during the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum era. MNISQ consists of 4,950,000 data points organized in 9 subdatasets. Building our dataset from the quantum encoding of classical information (e.g., MNIST dataset), we deliver a dataset in a dual form: in quantum form, as circuits, and in classical form, as quantum circuit descriptions (quantum programming language, QASM). In fact, also the Machine Learning research related to quantum computers undertakes a dual challenge: enhancing machine learning exploiting the power of quantum computers, while also leveraging state-of-the-art classical machine learning methodologies to help the advancement of quantum computing. Therefore, we perform circuit classification on our dataset, tackling the task with both quantum and classical models. In the quantum endeavor, we test our circuit dataset with Quantum Kernel methods, and we show excellent results up to $97\%$ accuracy. In the classical world, the underlying quantum mechanical structures within the quantum circuit data are not trivial. Nevertheless, we test our dataset on three classical models: Structured State Space sequence model (S4), Transformer and LSTM. In particular, the S4 model applied on the tokenized QASM sequences reaches an impressive $77\%$ accuracy. These findings illustrate that quantum circuit-related datasets are likely to be quantum advantageous, but also that state-of-the-art machine learning methodologies can competently classify and recognize quantum circuits. We finally entrust the quantum and classical machine learning community the fundamental challenge to build more quantum-classical datasets like ours and to build future benchmarks from our experiments. The dataset is accessible on GitHub and its circuits are easily run in qulacs or qiskit.

Action valuation of on- and off-ball soccer players based on multi-agent deep reinforcement learning

Analysis of invasive sports such as soccer is challenging because the game situation changes continuously in time and space, and multiple agents individually recognize the game situation and make decisions. Previous studies using deep reinforcement learning have often considered teams as a single agent and valued the teams and players who hold the ball in each discrete event. Then it was challenging to value the actions of multiple players, including players far from the ball, in a spatiotemporally continuous state space. In this paper, we propose a method of valuing possible actions for on- and off-ball soccer players in a single holistic framework based on multi-agent deep reinforcement learning. We consider a discrete action space in a continuous state space that mimics that of Google research football and leverages supervised learning for actions in reinforcement learning. In the experiment, we analyzed the relationships with conventional indicators, season goals, and game ratings by experts, and showed the effectiveness of the proposed method. Our approach can assess how multiple players move continuously throughout the game, which is difficult to be discretized or labeled but vital for teamwork, scouting, and fan engagement.