OracleProto: A Reproducible Framework for Benchmarking LLM Native Forecasting via Knowledge Cutoff and Temporal Masking

Large language models are moving from static text generators toward real-world decision-support systems, where forecasting is a composite capability that links information gathering, evidence integration, situational judgment, and action-oriented decision making. This capability is in broad demand across finance, policy, industry, and scientific research, yet its evaluation remains difficult: live benchmarks evaluate forecasts before answers exist, making them the cleanest way to measure forecasting ability, but they expire once events resolve; retrospective benchmarks are reproducible, but they cannot reliably distinguish genuine forecasting from facts a model may have already learned during pretraining. Prompting models to "pretend not to know" cannot replace a genuine knowledge boundary. We propose OracleProto, a reproducible framework for evaluating LLM native forecasting capability. OracleProto reconstructs resolved events into time-bounded forecasting samples by combining model-cutoff-aligned sample admission, tool-level temporal masking, content-level leakage detection, discrete answer normalization, and hierarchical scoring. Instantiated on a FutureX-Past-derived dataset with six contemporary LLMs, OracleProto distinguishes forecasting quality, sampling stability, and cost efficiency under controlled information boundaries, while reducing residual leakage to the $1\%$ level, an order of magnitude below tool-only temporal filtering. OracleProto turns LLM forecasting from one-off evaluation into an auditable, reusable, and trainable dataset-level capability, providing a unified interface for fair cross-model comparison and a controlled signal source for downstream SFT and RL. Code and data are available at https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto and https://huggingface.co/datasets/MaYiding/OracleProto.

ACF: A Collaborative Framework for Agent Covert Communication under Cognitive Asymmetry

As generative artificial intelligence evolves, autonomous agent networks present a powerful paradigm for interactive covert communication. However, because agents dynamically update internal memories via environmental interactions, existing methods face a critical structural vulnerability: cognitive asymmetry. Conventional approaches demand strict cognitive symmetry, requiring identical sequence prefixes between the encoder and decoder. In dynamic deployments, inevitable prefix discrepancies destroy synchronization, inducing severe channel degradation. To address this core challenge of cognitive asymmetry, we propose the Asymmetric Collaborative Framework (ACF), which structurally decouples covert communication from semantic reasoning via orthogonal statistical and cognitive layers. By deploying a prefix-independent decoding paradigm governed by a shared steganographic configuration, ACF eliminates the reliance on cognitive symmetry. Evaluations on realistic memory-augmented workflows demonstrate that under severe cognitive asymmetry, symmetric baselines suffer severe channel degradation, whereas ACF uniquely excels across both semantic fidelity and covert communication. It maintains computational indistinguishability, enabling reliable secret extraction with provable error bounds, and providing robust Effective Information Capacity guarantees for modern agent networks.

AgentMark: Utility-Preserving Behavioral Watermarking for Agents

LLM-based agents are increasingly deployed to autonomously solve complex tasks, raising urgent needs for IP protection and regulatory provenance. While content watermarking effectively attributes LLM-generated outputs, it fails to directly identify the high-level planning behaviors (e.g., tool and subgoal choices) that govern multi-step execution. Critically, watermarking at the planning-behavior layer faces unique challenges: minor distributional deviations in decision-making can compound during long-term agent operation, degrading utility, and many agents operate as black boxes that are difficult to intervene in directly. To bridge this gap, we propose AgentMark, a behavioral watermarking framework that embeds multi-bit identifiers into planning decisions while preserving utility. It operates by eliciting an explicit behavior distribution from the agent and applying distribution-preserving conditional sampling, enabling deployment under black-box APIs while remaining compatible with action-layer content watermarking. Experiments across embodied, tool-use, and social environments demonstrate practical multi-bit capacity, robust recovery from partial logs, and utility preservation. The code is available at https://github.com/Tooooa/AgentMark.

GSDFuse: Capturing Cognitive Inconsistencies from Multi-Dimensional Weak Signals in Social Media Steganalysis

The ubiquity of social media platforms facilitates malicious linguistic steganography, posing significant security risks. Steganalysis is profoundly hindered by the challenge of identifying subtle cognitive inconsistencies arising from textual fragmentation and complex dialogue structures, and the difficulty in achieving robust aggregation of multi-dimensional weak signals, especially given extreme steganographic sparsity and sophisticated steganography. These core detection difficulties are compounded by significant data imbalance. This paper introduces GSDFuse, a novel method designed to systematically overcome these obstacles. GSDFuse employs a holistic approach, synergistically integrating hierarchical multi-modal feature engineering to capture diverse signals, strategic data augmentation to address sparsity, adaptive evidence fusion to intelligently aggregate weak signals, and discriminative embedding learning to enhance sensitivity to subtle inconsistencies. Experiments on social media datasets demonstrate GSDFuse's state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in identifying sophisticated steganography within complex dialogue environments. The source code for GSDFuse is available at https://github.com/NebulaEmmaZh/GSDFuse.

Agent Guide: A Simple Agent Behavioral Watermarking Framework

The increasing deployment of intelligent agents in digital ecosystems, such as social media platforms, has raised significant concerns about traceability and accountability, particularly in cybersecurity and digital content protection. Traditional large language model (LLM) watermarking techniques, which rely on token-level manipulations, are ill-suited for agents due to the challenges of behavior tokenization and information loss during behavior-to-action translation. To address these issues, we propose Agent Guide, a novel behavioral watermarking framework that embeds watermarks by guiding the agent's high-level decisions (behavior) through probability biases, while preserving the naturalness of specific executions (action). Our approach decouples agent behavior into two levels, behavior (e.g., choosing to bookmark) and action (e.g., bookmarking with specific tags), and applies watermark-guided biases to the behavior probability distribution. We employ a z-statistic-based statistical analysis to detect the watermark, ensuring reliable extraction over multiple rounds. Experiments in a social media scenario with diverse agent profiles demonstrate that Agent Guide achieves effective watermark detection with a low false positive rate. Our framework provides a practical and robust solution for agent watermarking, with applications in identifying malicious agents and protecting proprietary agent systems.