MCMC Variational Inference via Uncorrected Hamiltonian Annealing

Given an unnormalized target distribution we want to obtain approximate samples from it and a tight lower bound on its (log) normalization constant log Z. Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) with Hamiltonian MCMC is a powerful method that can be used to do this. Its main drawback is that it uses non-differentiable transition kernels, which makes tuning its many parameters hard. We propose a framework to use an AIS-like procedure with Uncorrected Hamiltonian MCMC, called Uncorrected Hamiltonian Annealing. Our method leads to tight and differentiable lower bounds on log Z. We show empirically that our method yields better performances than other competing approaches, and that the ability to tune its parameters using reparameterization gradients may lead to large performance improvements.

Empirical Evaluation of Biased Methods for Alpha Divergence Minimization

In this paper we empirically evaluate biased methods for alpha-divergence minimization. In particular, we focus on how the bias affects the final solutions found, and how this depends on the dimensionality of the problem. We find that (i) solutions returned by these methods appear to be strongly biased towards minimizers of the traditional "exclusive" KL-divergence, KL(q||p), and (ii) in high dimensions, an impractically large amount of computation is needed to mitigate this bias and obtain solutions that actually minimize the alpha-divergence of interest.

An Easy to Interpret Diagnostic for Approximate Inference: Symmetric Divergence Over Simulations

It is important to estimate the errors of probabilistic inference algorithms. Existing diagnostics for Markov chain Monte Carlo methods assume inference is asymptotically exact, and are not appropriate for approximate methods like variational inference or Laplace's method. This paper introduces a diagnostic based on repeatedly simulating datasets from the prior and performing inference on each. The central observation is that it is possible to estimate a symmetric KL-divergence defined over these simulations.

On the Difficulty of Unbiased Alpha Divergence Minimization

Several approximate inference algorithms have been proposed to minimize an alpha-divergence between an approximating distribution and a target distribution. Many of these algorithms introduce bias, the magnitude of which is poorly understood. Other algorithms are unbiased. These often seem to suffer from high variance, but again, little is rigorously known. In this work we study unbiased methods for alpha-divergence minimization through the Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) of the gradient estimator. We study several representative scenarios where strong analytical results are possible, such as fully-factorized or Gaussian distributions. We find that when alpha is not zero, the SNR worsens exponentially in the dimensionality of the problem. This casts doubt on the practicality of these methods. We empirically confirm these theoretical results.

Approximation Based Variance Reduction for Reparameterization Gradients

Flexible variational distributions improve variational inference but are harder to optimize. In this work we present a control variate that is applicable for any reparameterizable distribution with known mean and covariance matrix, e.g. Gaussians with any covariance structure. The control variate is based on a quadratic approximation of the model, and its parameters are set using a double-descent scheme by minimizing the gradient estimator's variance. We empirically show that this control variate leads to large improvements in gradient variance and optimization convergence for inference with non-factorized variational distributions.

Advances in Black-Box VI: Normalizing Flows, Importance Weighting, and Optimization

Recent research has seen several advances relevant to black-box VI, but the current state of automatic posterior inference is unclear. One such advance is the use of normalizing flows to define flexible posterior densities for deep latent variable models. Another direction is the integration of Monte-Carlo methods to serve two purposes; first, to obtain tighter variational objectives for optimization, and second, to define enriched variational families through sampling. However, both flows and variational Monte-Carlo methods remain relatively unexplored for black-box VI. Moreover, on a pragmatic front, there are several optimization considerations like step-size scheme, parameter initialization, and choice of gradient estimators, for which there are no clear guidance in the existing literature. In this paper, we postulate that black-box VI is best addressed through a careful combination of numerous algorithmic components. We evaluate components relating to optimization, flows, and Monte-Carlo methods on a benchmark of 30 models from the Stan model library. The combination of these algorithmic components significantly advances the state-of-the-art "out of the box" variational inference.

Moment-Matching Conditions for Exponential Families with Conditioning or Hidden Data

Maximum likelihood learning with exponential families leads to moment-matching of the sufficient statistics, a classic result. This can be generalized to conditional exponential families and/or when there are hidden data. This document gives a first-principles explanation of these generalized moment-matching conditions, along with a self-contained derivation.

A Rule for Gradient Estimator Selection, with an Application to Variational Inference

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is the workhorse of modern machine learning. Sometimes, there are many different potential gradient estimators that can be used. When so, choosing the one with the best tradeoff between cost and variance is important. This paper analyzes the convergence rates of SGD as a function of time, rather than iterations. This results in a simple rule to select the estimator that leads to the best optimization convergence guarantee. This choice is the same for different variants of SGD, and with different assumptions about the objective (e.g. convexity or smoothness). Inspired by this principle, we propose a technique to automatically select an estimator when a finite pool of estimators is given. Then, we extend to infinite pools of estimators, where each one is indexed by control variate weights. This is enabled by a reduction to a mixed-integer quadratic program. Empirically, automatically choosing an estimator performs comparably to the best estimator chosen with hindsight.

Thompson Sampling and Approximate Inference

We study the effects of approximate inference on the performance of Thompson sampling in the $k$-armed bandit problems. Thompson sampling is a successful algorithm for online decision-making but requires posterior inference, which often must be approximated in practice. We show that even small constant inference error (in $\alpha$-divergence) can lead to poor performance (linear regret) due to under-exploration (for $\alpha<1$) or over-exploration (for $\alpha>0$) by the approximation. While for $\alpha > 0$ this is unavoidable, for $\alpha \leq 0$ the regret can be improved by adding a small amount of forced exploration even when the inference error is a large constant.